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Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates

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Rudiger Dornbusch

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Abstract

The paper reviews theoretical developments in the field of exchange rate theory and assesses the empirical evidence. Since the empirical evidence does not lend support to the models that have been formulated, a number of reasons for that failure are suggested. These include the argument that the current account has been overrated as an exchange rate determinant and that the role of "news" as yet remains to be tested in an extensive way. Four exchange rate problems are identified as possibly giving justification to exchange market intervention or other policies. They are the possibility of speculative bubbles, the peso problem, the use of irrelevant information and the problem of real appreciation in the case of monetarist stabilization. In each case the exchange rate can deviate from fundamentals, following the asset market rather than the goods market and thus disturbing macroeconomic equilibrium.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0983.

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Date of creation: Jul 1983
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0983

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Paul R. Krugman, 1981. "Consumption Preferences, Asset Demands, and Distribution Effects in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 291-304, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Buiter, Willem H & Miller, Marcus, 1981. "Monetary Policy and International Competitiveness: The Problems of Adjustment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(0), pages 143-75, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Charles Engel & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Why Money Announcements Move Interest Rates: An Answer from the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 1049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-27, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Robert J. Shiller, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 0565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1981. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: are any fit to survive?," International Finance Discussion Papers 184, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. James Tobin, 1978. "A Proposal for International Monetary Reform," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 506, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Patrick A. Imam & Camelia Minoiu, 2008. "Mauritius: A Competitiveness Assessment," IMF Working Papers 08/212, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jorge Braga de Macedo, 1986. "Trade and Financial Interdependence Under Flexible Exchange Rates: The Pacific Area," NBER Working Papers 1517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 1990. "Real and Monetary Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Behavior: Theory and Evidence From Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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