Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation
AbstractImplementing a 'gradualist' policy of monetary contraction, in an open economy with a freely floating exchange rate but with nominal inertia in domestic labor costs, can lead to prompt and substantial changes in the nominal and real exchange rate. One of the virtues claimed for such exchange rate 'overshooting', however, is its immediate effect on the price level and so on domestic wage and price inflation. In this paper we show that, in a model which is 'super-neutral' and has nominal inertia in both the level of labor costs and their trend or core rate of growth, this early overshooting of the exchange rate does not succeed in cutting the output costs of reducing steady-state inflation. Those output and unemployment costs which are initially avoided by over- valuing the currency have to be paid later when this overvaluation is corrected. Relative to other policies which achieve the same effect on steady-state inflation, exchange rate overshooting brings inflation down more quickly.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0749.
Date of creation: Oct 1982
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Willem H. Buiter, Marcus Miller. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation: Some Further Results," in Jacob A. Frenkel, ed., "Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics" University of Chicago Press (1983) Willem H. Buiter, Marcus Miller. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation," in Georges de Ménil and Robert J. Gordon, editors, "International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics" Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., 1991 (1991)
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- Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1991. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 239-277 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Buiter, Willem H. & Miller, Marcus, 1982. "Real exchange rate overshooting and the output cost of bringing down inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 85-123.
- Buiter, Willem H. & Miller, Marcus, 1982. "Real exchange rate overshooting and the output cost of bringing down inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 85-123.
- Buiter, Willem H & Miller, Marcus, 1981. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 204, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
- D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
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