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A Standard Monetary Model and the Variability of the Deutschemark-DollarExchange Rate

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Kenneth D. West

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Abstract

This paper uses a novel teat to see whether the Herse (1985) and Woo (1985) models are consistent with the variability of the deutschemark - dollar exchange rate 1974-1984. The answer, perhaps surprisingly, is yes. Both models, however, explain the month to month variability as resulting in a critical way from unobservable shocks to money demand and purchasing power parity. It would therefore be of interest in future work to model one or both of these shocks as explicit functions of economic variables.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2102.

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Date of creation: Dec 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2102

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 2067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hodrick, Robert J., 1979. "On the monetary analysis of exchange rates : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 103-121, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Meese, Richard A, 1986. "Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 345-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 1833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 291-304, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Frenkel, Jacob A & Mussa, Michael L, 1980. "The Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 374-81, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "International Interest-Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchalge Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 0921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1987. "Asset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching," NBER Working Papers 1867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Are Tax Cuts Really Expansionary?," NBER Working Papers 1443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Robert J. Shiller, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 0565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Jacob A. Frenkel & Michael L. Mussa, 1980. "Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence," NBER Working Papers 0476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1976-3), pages 683-740. [Downloadable!]
  21. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1987. "Ruling Out Nonstationary Speculative Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 1601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  24. Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1985. "The Impossibility of Rational Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 1615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignment: Evaluating Some Proposals for Reform," NBER Working Papers 2894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Robert C. Feenstra & Jon D. Kendall, 1994. "Passthrough of Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 4842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1989. "Was it Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation, 1973-1984," NBER Working Papers 1732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark-Dollar Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 10995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Bartolini, Leonardo & Giorgianni, Lorenzo, 2001. "Excess Volatility of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(3), pages 518-30, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Baffes, John & Ajwad, Mohamed I., 1998. "Detecting price links in the world cotton market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1944, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Robert C. Feenstra & Jon D. Kendall, 1991. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices," NBER Working Papers 3644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Simon van Norden, 1995. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Econometrics 9502001, EconWPA, revised 09 Aug 1995. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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