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Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics

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Nelson C. Mark

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Abstract

When central banks set nominal interest rates according to an interest rate reaction function, such as the Taylor rule, and the exchange rate is priced by uncovered interest parity, the real exchange rate is determined by expected inflation differentials and output gap differentials. In this paper I examine the implications of these Taylor-rule fundamentals for real exchange rate determination in an environment where market participants are ignorant of the numerical values of the model's coefficients but attempt to acquire that information using least-squares learning rules. I find evidence that this simple learning environment provides a plausible framework for understanding real dollar--DM exchange rate dynamics from 1976 to 2003. The least-squares learning path for the real exchange rate implied by inflation and output gap data exhibits the real depreciation of the 70s, the great appreciation (1979.4-1985.1) and the subsequent great depreciation (1985.2-1991.1) observed in the data. An emphasis on Taylor-rule fundamentals may provide a resolution to the exchange rate disconnect puzzle.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11061.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11061

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F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Campbell-Pownall, R.A.J. & Koedijk, C.G. & Lothian, J.R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2007. "Irving Fisher and the UIP Puzzle: Meeting the Expectations a Century Later," Research Paper ERS-2007-088-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  2. Masao Ogaki & Hyeongwoo Kim, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule," Working Papers 09-03, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pierre Siklos, 2007. "Revisiting the Coyne Affair: A Singular Event That Changed the Course of Canadian Monetary History," Working Papers eg0047, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2007. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2008. "The Taylor rule and forecast intervals for exchange rates," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 22, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2007. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think," NBER Working Papers 13318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Learning and Macroeconomics," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-3, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "US shocks and global exchange rate configurations," Working Paper Series 835, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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