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Re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990

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Author Info
Hali J. Edison
B. Dianne Pauls

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Abstract

The general view of the economics profession is that we can not explain exchange rate movements. However, some researchers still contend that the relationship between real interest rates and the real exchange rate is a useful framework for thinking about exchange rate movements. This paper asks whether there is such a systematic relationship and whether it is revealed by the data. In our attempt to find such a relationship we investigate whether the empirical results are conditional on: (1) the time period selected, (2) the choice of interest rate, (3) the measure of expected inflation, and (4) the choice of exchange rate. The results show that exchange rates and interest rates, both nominal and real are nonstationary; however, they are not cointegrated with each other. On the other hand, the dynamic models indicate that there might be a long-run relationship between these variables, but cannot corroborate this. Consequently, the final conclusion is that the empirical results do not confirm the relationship and this result is robust across exchange rates, time periods, interest rates, and inflation measures.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 408.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:408

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; International finance;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x.
  6. Edison, Hali J. & Fisher, Eric O'N, 1991. "A long-run view of the European monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
  8. Boughton, James M., 1987. "Tests of the performance of reduced-form exchange rate models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 41-56, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Cletus C. Coughlin & Kees Koedijk, 1990. "What do we know about the long-run real exchange rate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 36-48. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chinn, Menzie & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons," Discussion Paper Series 26355, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Chowdhry, Bhagwan & Roll, Richard & Xia, Yihong, 2003. "Extracting Inflation from Stock Returns to Test Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 03-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
  4. repec:att:wimass:1920411 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Chowdhry, Bhagwan & Roll, Richard & Xia, Yihong, 2004. "Extracting Inflation from Stock Returns to Test Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 04-2, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jan Bruha & Jirí Podpiera, 2007. "Transition economy convergence in a two-country model - implications for monetary integration," Working Paper Series 740, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hali J. Edison & William R. Melick, 1992. "Purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity: the United States 1974-1990," International Finance Discussion Papers 425, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Christian Dreger, 2008. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Affect the Real Interest Parity Condition?," Working Paper / FINESS 1.1c, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jordi Galí & Richard Clarida, 1993. "Sources of Real Exchage Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," Economics Working Papers 66, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 1994. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Menzie David Chinn & Jaewoo Lee, 2002. "Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G-7 Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/130, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Camarero, Mariam & Ordonez, Javier & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: Is it Fundamental?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Christian Dreger & Christian Schumacher, 2003. "Are Real Interest Rates Cointegrated? Further evidence based on paneleconometric methods," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(I), pages 41-53, March. [Downloadable!]
  13. Abdul RASHID, 2009. "Testing The Modified-Combined Ppp And Uip Hypothesis In South Asian Economies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Pablo A. Guerron, 2006. "Why do Central Bankers Intervene in the Foreign Exchange Market? Some New Evidence and Theory," Working Paper Series 007, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
  15. Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2008. "Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate Relationship," Working Papers 2008_29, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  16. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Jerry Coakley & Andrew Wood, 2004. "A new interpretation of the real exchange rate - yield differential nexus," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 32, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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