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A long-run view of the european monetary system

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  • Hali J. Edison
  • Eric Fisher

Abstract

This paper analyzes the exchange rates and consumer price indices of the six largest countries of the European Monetary System (EMS). The analysis covers the entire period of floating exchange rates. This paper shows that many of the implied real exchange rates have unit roots, even when one allows for the possibility of a structural break occurring at the time of the formation of the EMS. Further, prices and exchange rates are not co-integrated during the EMS period. There is strong evidence that there is a quadratic time trend in these price indices and weak evidence that Exchange rates and prices were more highly co-integrated before the advent of the EMS. The data suggest that the eleven realignments of the EMS between 1979 and 1988 have not served fully to offset the member countries' inflation differentials.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1989/339/default.htm
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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1989/339/ifdp339.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 339.

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Date of creation: 1989
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:339

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References

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  1. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1988. "The advantage of tying one's hands : EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1055-1075, June.
  2. Park, Joon Y. & Sung, Jaewhan, 1994. "Testing for Unit Roots in Models with Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(05), pages 917-936, December.
  3. Edison, Hali J., 1985. "Purchasing power parity: A quantitative reassessment of the 1920s experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 361-372, September.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  5. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-11, August.
  6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  7. Hali J. Edison & Jan Tore Klovland, 1983. "A quantitative reassessment of the purchasing power parity hypothesis : evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 231, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  9. Levich, Richard M., 1985. "Empirical studies of exchange rates: Price behavior, rate determination and market efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 979-1040 Elsevier.
  10. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
  11. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1986. "Robust tests for unit roots in the foreign exchange market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 375-380.
  12. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-35, September.
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