A long-run view of the european monetary system
AbstractThis paper analyzes the exchange rates and consumer price indices of the six largest countries of the European Monetary System (EMS). The analysis covers the entire period of floating exchange rates. This paper shows that many of the implied real exchange rates have unit roots, even when one allows for the possibility of a structural break occurring at the time of the formation of the EMS. Further, prices and exchange rates are not co-integrated during the EMS period. There is strong evidence that there is a quadratic time trend in these price indices and weak evidence that Exchange rates and prices were more highly co-integrated before the advent of the EMS. The data suggest that the eleven realignments of the EMS between 1979 and 1988 have not served fully to offset the member countries' inflation differentials.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 339.
Date of creation: 1989
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1986.
"The Advantages of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1991. "The Advantage of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 303-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1988. "The advantage of tying one's hands : EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1055-1075, June.
- Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1986. "Robust tests for unit roots in the foreign exchange market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 375-380.
- Owen Evens & Thomas H. Mayer & Philip M. Young & Horst Ungerer, 1986. "The European Monetary System: Recent Developments," IMF Occasional Papers 48, International Monetary Fund.
- Park, Joon Y. & Sung, Jaewhan, 1994. "Testing for Unit Roots in Models with Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(05), pages 917-936, December.
- Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
- Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-35, September.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Hali J. Edison & Jan Tore Klovland, 1983.
"A quantitative reassessment of the purchasing power parity hypothesis : evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
231, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Edison, Hali J & Klovland, Jan Tore, 1987. "A Quantitative Reassessment of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 309-33, October.
- Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-11, August.
- Levich, Richard M., 1985. "Empirical studies of exchange rates: Price behavior, rate determination and market efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 979-1040 Elsevier.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
- Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
- Edison, Hali J., 1985. "Purchasing power parity: A quantitative reassessment of the 1920s experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 361-372, September.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Kris Vajs to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.