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The Real Exchange Rate in Small, Open, Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

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Author Info
Debabrata Bagchi
Georgios E. Chortareas
Stephen M. Miller

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Abstract

We examine the effects of the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differential on the real exchange rate in small, open, developed economies. We employ cointegration analysis to search for long-term linkages. We find that while both the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differentials affect the real exchange rate in the long run, the role of the terms of trade generally proves more consistent. The speed of adjustment for the expected real interest rate differential in the error-correction model, however, is quantitatively larger than it is for the terms of trade. Copyright © 2004 Economic Society of Australia..

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Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 80 (2004)
Issue (Month): 248 (03)
Pages: 76-88
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:80:y:2004:i:248:p:76-88

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Krumm, Kathie L, 1993. "A Medium-Term Framework for Analyzing the Real Exchange Rate, with Applications to the Philippines and Tanzania," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 219-45, May.
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  17. Kawai, Masahiro & Ohara, Hidetaka, 1997. "Nonstationarity of Real Exchange Rates in the G7 Countries: Are They Cointegrated with Real Variables?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 523-547, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2007. "Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology when Variables are Near-Integrated," IMF Working Papers 07/141, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Georgios E. Chortareas & Rebecca L. Driver, . "PPP and the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential puzzle revisited: evidence from non-stationary panel data," Bank of England working papers 138, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2007. "Balassa-Samuelson Effect Approaching Fifty Years: Is it Retiring Early in Australia?," Economics Working Papers wp07-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dima, Bogdan & Pirtea, Marilen & Barna, Flavia & Murgea, Aurora, 2007. "The Romanian Financial Market and the Financial Markets from EU - A Integration Analysis," MPRA Paper 12315, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2007. "Are The Real Exchange Rate Indices of Australia Non-Stationary in the Presence of Structural Break?," Economics Working Papers wp07-05, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
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