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The Real Exchange Rate in Small, Open, Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

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  • Debabrata Bagchi
  • Georgios E. Chortareas
  • Stephen M. Miller

Abstract

We examine the effects of the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differential on the real exchange rate in small, open, developed economies. We employ cointegration analysis to search for long-term linkages. We find that while both the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differentials affect the real exchange rate in the long run, the role of the terms of trade generally proves more consistent. The speed of adjustment for the expected real interest rate differential in the error-correction model, however, is quantitatively larger than it is for the terms of trade. Copyright � 2004 Economic Society of Australia..

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Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 80 (2004)
Issue (Month): 248 (03)
Pages: 76-88

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:80:y:2004:i:248:p:76-88

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  1. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Georgios E. Chortareas & Rebecca L. Driver, 2001. "PPP and the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential puzzle revisited: evidence from non-stationary panel data," Bank of England working papers 138, Bank of England.
  2. Tsen, Wong Hock, 2011. "The real exchange rate determination: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 800-811, October.
  3. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2012. "Modelling the dynamics, structural breaks and the determinants of the real exchange rate of Australia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 343-358.
  4. Erik Hjalmarsson & Par Osterholm, 2007. "Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated," International Finance Discussion Papers 915, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2007. "Balassa-Samuelson Effect Approaching Fifty Years: Is it Retiring Early in Australia?," Economics Working Papers wp07-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  6. Khorshed Chowdhury, 2011. "Dynamics, Structural Breaks and the Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate of Australia," Economics Working Papers wp11-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  7. Dima, Bogdan & Pirtea, Marilen & Barna, Flavia & Murgea, Aurora, 2007. "The Romanian Financial Market and the Financial Markets from EU - A Integration Analysis," MPRA Paper 12315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated: size distortions and partial remedies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 51-76, August.
  9. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2007. "Are The Real Exchange Rate Indices of Australia Non-Stationary in the Presence of Structural Break?," Economics Working Papers wp07-05, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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