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PPP and the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential puzzle revisited: evidence from non-stationary panel data

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Georgios E. Chortareas
Rebecca L. Driver

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Abstract

This paper examines the evidence for two of the relationships that underpin (explicitly or implicitly) much of international macroeconomics. The first is purchasing power parity (PPP), or the hypothesis that there exists a constant long-run equilibrium real exchange rate. The second establishes a relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. The tests are conducted on a panel of 18 OECD economies using the United States as a numeraire for the post-Bretton Woods era. The results are obtained using new non-stationary panel estimation techniques, which significantly increase the power of the tests. All the tests suggest that there is little evidence supporting PPP when it is tested directly. This contrasts with earlier panel data studies, which tended to find that the real exchange rate was stationary. The results supporting a long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials appear to be more positive. This again provides a contrast with earlier results, which tended to find no evidence of cointegration. Such studies concentrated on G7 economies. To investigate this further the panel was split into two groups: the G7 and eleven small open economies. For the panel of small open economies strong evidence in favour of cointegration is found. In contrast, there is no evidence of cointegration in a panel that consists purely of the G7 economies.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 138.

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Matthieu Bussiere & Georgios Chortareas & Rebecca L Driver, . "Current accounts, net foreign assets and the implications of cyclical factors," Bank of England working papers 173, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2006. "On the Equality of Real Interest Rates Across Borders in Integrated Capital Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5611, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, . "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, . "The yen real exchange rate may be stationary after all: evidence from non-linear unit root tests," Bank of England working papers 311, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Mathias Hoffmann & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "A Re-examination of the Link between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "The dynamic relationship between real exchange rates, real interest rates and foreign exchange reserves: empirical evidence from China," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 639-651, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio Luis Schmukler & Neeltje Van Horen, 2006. "International Financial Integration through the Law of One Price," Business School Working Papers 2006-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2008. "Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate Relationship," Working Papers 2008_29, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  10. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Are Real Interest Differentials Caused by Frictions in Goods or Assets Markets, Real or Nominal Shocks?," Studies in Economics 0407, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jan J J Groen & Clare Lombardelli, . "Real exchange rates and the relative prices of non-traded and traded goods: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 223, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  12. Abhisek Banerjee & Manmohan Singh, 2006. "Testing Real Interest Parity in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/249, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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