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On PPP, unit roots and panels

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  • Martin Wagner

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Abstract

This paper re-assesses the panel (unit root test) evidence for PPP on four monthly data sets. We discuss and illustrate that commonly-used first generation panel unit root tests are inappropriate for PPP analysis since they are constructed for cross-sectionally uncorrelated panels. Given that real exchange rate panel data sets are – almost by construction – highly cross-sectionally correlated, so called second generation panel unit root methods that allow for and model cross-sectional dependence should be applied. Using inappropriate first generation tests, quite strong evidence for PPP is found. However, this evidence vanishes entirely when resorting to an appropriate method (e.g. the one developed in Bai and Ng, 2004a) for nonstationary cross-sectionally correlated panels. We strongly believe that our findings are relevant beyond the data sets investigated here for illustration.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 229-249

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:35:y:2008:i:2:p:229-249

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Keywords: PPP; Real exchange rate index; Unit root; Panel; Cross-sectional dependence; Factor model; C23; F30; F31;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Helmut Herwartz & Florian Siedenburg, 2010. "A New Approach to Unit Root Testing," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 365-384, December.
  2. García Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2008. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Developed Countries and Emerging Market Economies: Different Outcomes Explained," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Martin Wagner & Georg Müller-Fürstenberger, 2004. "The Carbon Kuznets Curve: A Cloudy Picture Emitted by Bad Econometrics?," Diskussionsschriften dp0418, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  4. Eberhardt, Markus & Helmers, Christian & Strauss, Hubert, 2010. "Do spillovers matter when estimating private returns to R&D?," Economic and Financial Reports 2010/1, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  5. Castrén, Olli & Osbat, Chiara & Sydow, Matthias, 2006. "What drives investors’ behaviour in different FX market segments? A VAR-based return decomposition analysis," Working Paper Series 0706, European Central Bank.
  6. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.
  7. García-Solanes, José & Sancho-Portero, F. Israel & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2008. "Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson effect in some new member states of the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 17-32, March.
  8. Månsson, Kristofer & Sjölander, Pär, 2014. "Testing for nonlinear panel unit roots under cross-sectional dependency — With an application to the PPP hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 121-132.
  9. Wagner, Martin, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in 'East & West'. Differences and Similarities," Economics Series 180, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  10. Herwartz, Helmut & Siedenburg, Florian, 2009. "A new approach to unit root testing," Economics Working Papers 2009,06, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  11. Smeekes Stephan, 2011. "Bootstrap Sequential Tests to Determine the Stationary Units in a Panel," Research Memorandum 003, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  12. Jorg Breitung & Gianluca Cubadda, 2009. "Testing for cointegration in high-dimensional systems," CEIS Research Paper 148, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 30 Sep 2009.
  13. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluis Carrión-i-Silvestre, 2008. "Deconstructing Shocks and Persistence in OECD Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers XREAP2008-06, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jun 2008.

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