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Evaluating Latent and Observed Factors in Macroeconomics and Financ

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Author Info
Jushan Bai (NYU)
Serena Ng (University of Michigan)

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Abstract

Common factors play an important role in many disciplines of social science. In economics, the factors are the common shocks that underlie the co-movements of the large number of economic time series. The question of interest is whether some observable economic variables are in fact the underlying unobserved factors. We consider statistics to determine if the observed and the latent factors are exactly the same. We also provide simple to construct statistics that indicate the extent to which the two sets of factors differ. The key to the analysis is that the space spanned by the latent factors can be consistently estimated when the sample size is large in both the cross-section and the time series dimensions. The tests are used to assess how well the so-called Fama and French factors as well as several business cycle indicators approximate the factors in portfolio and individual stock returns. Data from a large panel of macroeconomic are also analyzed.

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File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/em/papers/0408/0408007.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0408007.

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Date of creation: 17 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0408007

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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: diffusion indices generated regresors large dimensional panel

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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  1. Fabio Araujo & João Victor Issler & Marcelo Fernandes, 2005. "Estimating the Stochastic Discount Factor without a Utility Function," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 583, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabio Araujo & João Victor Issler & Marcelo Fernandes, 2006. "A Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to Asset Pricing Using Panel Data," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 628, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  4. Wei-Choun Yu, 2008. "Macroeconomic and financial market volatilities: an empirical evidence of factor model," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(33), pages 1-18. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1595, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. João Victor Issler & Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira Lima, 2007. "A Panel Data Approach to Economic Forecasting: The Bias-Corrected Average Forecast," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 642, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Kelly, Logan, 2007. "Measuring the Economic Stock of Money," MPRA Paper 4914, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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