Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage

Contents:

Author Info

  • Miguel Carvalho

    ()

  • Paulo Júlio

    ()

Abstract

We use several popular tests to test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis. In particular, we analyze four classes of tests { standard univariate unit root tests, co-integration, panel unit root tests and unit root tests for nonlinear frameworks {, for a dataset consisting of 20 bilateral exchange rates. Through this approach, we ascertain the e ectiveness of each methodology in assessing the validity of PPP. Overall, our results suggest little evidence to support PPP. Among the conducted tests, the panel analysis of nonstationarity idiosyncratic and common components provides the richest insights by disentangling the possible sources of non-stationarity of real exchange rates. The relevance of using price indexes with di erent characteristics is also pinpointed.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-010-0441-0
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 713-744

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:42:y:2012:i:3:p:713-744

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/index.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm

Related research

Keywords: PPP; Real exchange rate; Unit roots; Co-integration; Panel; Nonlinear models; Cross-sectional dependence;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1998. "Parity reversion in real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 597-614, August.
  2. Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil & Snaith, Stuart, 2005. "The PPP debate: Price matters!," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 209-213, August.
  3. Tor Jacobson & Johan Lyhagen & Rolf Larsson & Marianne Nessén, 2008. "Inflation, exchange rates and PPP in a multivariate panel cointegration model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 58-79, 03.
  4. Charles Engel, 1996. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," NBER Working Papers 5646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," NBER Working Papers 10607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
  7. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  8. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  10. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
  11. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
  12. Edison, Hali J., 1985. "Purchasing power parity: A quantitative reassessment of the 1920s experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 361-372, September.
  13. Chang, Yoosoon, 2002. "Nonlinear IV Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency," Working Papers 2000-08, Rice University, Department of Economics.
  14. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08.
  15. Chowdhury, Ibrahim & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Non-Linear Dynamics in Deviations from the Law of One Price: A Broad-Based Empirical Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 3377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  17. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  18. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  19. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  20. Fisher, Eric O'N & Park, Joon Y, 1991. "Testing Purchasing Power Parity under the Null Hypothesis of Co-integration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1476-84, November.
  21. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
  22. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity for price indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 489-506, August.
  23. Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M., Universite Aix-Marseille III 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  24. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  25. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February.
  26. Kaddour Hadri, 1999. "Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data," Research Papers, University of Liverpool Management School 1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
  27. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, . "Real Exchange Rates under the Recent Float: Unequivocal Evidence of Mean Reversion," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 97-14, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  28. Tor Jacobson & Marianne Nessén, 2004. "Examining world-wide purchasing power parity," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 463-476, 09.
  29. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  30. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. " The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-19, September.
  31. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  32. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-11, August.
  33. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  34. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  35. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
  36. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Nonlinear Adjustment of ASEAN-5 Real Exchange Rates: Symmetrical or Asymmetrical?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(8), pages 1-19.
  37. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  39. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  40. L. Vanessa Smith & Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2004. "More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversion in real exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 147-170.
  41. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-98, March.
  42. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
  43. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, 06.
  44. Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Modeling non-linearities in real effective exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-45, January.
  45. Oh, Keun-Yeob, 1996. "Purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 405-418, June.
  46. Wagner, Martin, 2005. "On PPP, Unit Roots and Panels," Economics Series 176, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  47. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  48. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
  49. Peter Kugler & Carlos Lenz, 1990. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis and the Long-run Validity of PPP," Diskussionsschriften, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft dp9004, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  50. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
  51. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  52. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  53. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  54. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  55. Wallace, Frederick H. & Shelley, Gary L., 2006. "An alternative test of purchasing power parity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 177-183, August.
  56. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  57. Sollis, Robert & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Tests for Symmetric and Asymmetric Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 686-700, August.
  58. Goldberg, Lawrence G. & Gosnell, Thomas F. & Okunev, John, 1997. "Purchasing power parity: Modeling and testing mean reversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 949-966, July.
  59. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  60. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  61. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, October.
  62. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Kian-Ping Lim, 2003. "The inadequacy of linear autoregressive model for real exchange rates: empirical evidence from Asian economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1387-1392.
  63. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
  64. Koedijk, Kees G. & Schotman, Peter C. & Van Dijk, Mathijs A., 1998. "The re-emergence of PPP in the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 51-61, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:42:y:2012:i:3:p:713-744. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.