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Rational speculation and exchange rates

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  • Duarte, Margarida
  • Stockman, Alan C.

Abstract

In this paper we develop a general equilibrium model of exchange rates where expectations of future variables directly affect the current exchange rate through an 'asset-market' term. This term, which results from the assumptions of incomplete asset markets and segmented product markets, does not appear in most models of exchange rates and it allows for changes in expectations about variables at t+1 to affect the date-t exchange rates without requiring changes in other contemporaneous variables. Therefore, the model has the potential to deliver changes in exchange rates, resulting from rational speculation, without much change in consumption allocations or goods' prices, making it consistent with the common view that exchange rates behave like asset prices. To implement the idea that exchange rates respond to expectations about future economic conditions, we introduce a regime variable governing the covariance structure of shocks to productivity and money growth in each country. Changes in the information variable are intended to generate changes in home and foreign agents' perceptions of the relative risks of holding the nominal asset. The model is roughly consistent with the common view that exchange rates behave like asset prices. However, it does not generate a sufficient degree of rational speculation to explain either observed variation of risk premia in foreign exchange markets or observed variation in exchange rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 52 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 3-29

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:52:y:2005:i:1:p:3-29

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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References

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Svensson, Lars E O & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Excess Capacity, Monopolistic Competition, and International Transmission of Monetary Disturbances," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 785-805, September.
  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  4. Charles Engel, 2002. "Expenditure Switching and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 9016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. M.B. Devereux & Ch. Engel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and ExchangeRate Disconnect," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 77, Netherlands Central Bank.
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  7. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-112, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
  9. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2004. "International Capital Markets and Foreign Exchange Risk," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt53z0s29k, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
  11. Charles Engel, 1999. "On the Foreign-Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," NBER Working Papers 7067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Duarte, Margarida, 2003. "Why don't macroeconomic quantities respond to exchange rate variability?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 889-913, May.
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  14. Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1993. "Why have a target zone?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 279-314, June.
  15. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-98, August.
  16. Robert J. Hodrick, 1989. "Risk, Uncertainty and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  18. Sercu,Piet & Uppal,Raman, 2000. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade, and Capital Flows under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521562942, December.
  19. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
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