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How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?

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Christopher J. Neely
Lucio Sarno

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Abstract

For many years after the seminal work of Meese and Rogoff (1983a), conventional wisdom held that exchange rates could not be forecast from monetary fundamentals. Monetary models of exchange rate determination were generally unable to beat even a naïve no-change model in out-of-sample forecasting. More recently, the use of sophisticated econometric techniques, panel data, and long spans of data has convinced some researchers (Mark and Sul, 2001) that monetary models can forecast a small, but statistically significant part of the variation in exchange rates. Others remain skeptical, however (Rapach and Wohar, 2001b; Faust, Rogers, and Wright, 2001). It remains a puzzle why even the most supportive studies find such a small predictable component to exchange rates. This article reviews the literature on forecasting exchange rates with monetary fundamentals and speculates as to why it remains so difficult.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 51-74
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2002:i:sep:p:51-74:n:v.84no.5

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Keywords: Forecasting ; Foreign exchange rates;

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
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  1. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "Tobin Tax Effects Seen from the Foreign Exchange Market's Microstructure," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-268, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff,Lukas, 2004. "The Rise of Fund Managers in Foreign Exchange: Will Fundamentals Ultimately Dominate?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-308, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Emmanuel Davradakis, 2005. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates: a non-parametric cointegration analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 439-446, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Eric Fisher, 2004. "Exploring Elements of Exchange Rate Theory in a Controlled Enivronment," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000199, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia-Pascual, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Sarmidi, Tamat, 2008. "Exchange Rates Predictability in Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 16580, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Francis Vitek, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle," International Finance 0509005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rasmus Fatum & Barry Scholnick, 2003. "Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1007, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kurmas Akdogan & Yunus Aksoy, 2007. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals : Is there a Role for Nonlinearities in Real Time?," Working Papers 0703, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Ardic, Oya Pinar & Ergin, Onur & Senol, G. Bahar, 2008. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies," MPRA Paper 7505, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2007. "Central bank intervention with limited arbitrage," Working Papers 2006-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Rasmus Fatum & Barry Scholnick, 2003. "Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 03-18, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Aug 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2005. "Non-Linearities in the Relation between the Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  15. Philip Arestis, Malcolm Sawyer, 2003. "The Nature and Role of Monetary Policy When Money Is Endogenous," Economics Working Paper Archive 374, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Stefan Reitz & Georg Stadtmann, 2005. "Consensus among FX forecasters?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 223-227, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Bofinger, Peter & Leitner, Johannes & Schmidt, Robert, 2004. "Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Frömmel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2002. "Markov Switching Regimes in a Monetary Exchange Rate Model," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-266, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio & Wohar, Mark E, 2003. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 3983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Analysis of exchange rate fluctuations for Slovakia: application of an extended Mundell--Fleming model," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 289-292, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Guy Meredith, 2003. "Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting: What Can We Expect?," IMF Working Papers 03/21, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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