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Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: a layman's guide

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Author Info
Christopher J. Neely

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Abstract

Economists have traditionally been skeptical of the value of technical analysis, the use of past price behavior to guide trading decisions in asset markets. Instead, they have relied on the logic of the efficient markets hypothesis. Christopher J. Neely briefly explains the fundamentals of technical analysis and the efficient markets hypothesis as applied to the foreign exchange market, evaluates the profitability of simple trading rules, and reviews recent ideas that might justify extrapolative technical analysis.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 23-38
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1997:i:sep:p:23-38

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Keywords: Foreign exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1997. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," NBER Working Papers 5936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Treynor, Jack L & Ferguson, Robert, 1985. " In Defense of Technical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 757-73, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Leahy, Michael P, 1995. "The profitability of US intervention in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 823-844, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lee E. Ohanian, 1996. "When the bubble bursts: psychology or fundamentals?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 3-13. [Downloadable!]
  13. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Sanford J. Grossman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," NBER Reprints 0121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Charles Engel, 1995. "Why is the forward exchange rate forecast biased? A survey of recent evidence," Research Working Paper 95-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1996. "How Well do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," NBER Working Papers 5422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Siegel, Jeremy J & Thaler, Richard H, 1997. "Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 191-200, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  20. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 1997. "Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 513-535, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. C.L. Osler & P.H. Kevin Chang, 1995. "Head and shoulders: not just a flaky pattern," Staff Reports 4, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  22. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 2001. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 949-970, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Peter Fortune, 1991. "Stock market efficiency: an autopsy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 17-40.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fernando Rubio, 2004. "Technical Analysis On Foreign Exchange: 1975 - 2004," Finance 0405033, EconWPA, revised 01 Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stefan Reitz, 2005. "Central Bank Intervention and Heterogeneous Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence from the Daily DEM/US-Dollar Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 33-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Frank Westerhoff & Claudia Lawrenz, 2000. "Explaining Exchange Rate Volatility With A Genetic Algorithm," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 325, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Long swings and chaos in the exchange rate in a DSGE model with a Taylor rule," Research Discussion Papers 19/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Cars Hommes, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," Research Paper Series 133, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Tiffany Hutcheson, 2000. "Trading in the Australian Foreign Exchange Market," Working Paper Series 107, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  7. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2007. "Central bank intervention with limited arbitrage," Working Papers 2006-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Research Discussion Papers 21/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ana María Abarca & Felipe Alarcón & Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "Chilean Nominal Exchange Rate: Forecasting Based Upon Technical Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 425, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  11. Reitz, Stefan, 2002. "Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Expectations – Evidence from the Daily DM/US-Dollar Exchange Rate," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Instrument rules in monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Research Discussion Papers 22/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  13. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Mikael Bask, 2007. "Chartism and exchange rate volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 301-316. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ralf Ahrens & Stefan Reitz, 2003. "Heterogeneous Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market Evidence from the Daily Dollar/DM Exchange Rate," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/11, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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