Long horizon predictability of exchange rates: Is it for real?
AbstractThis paper reexamines recent results on the predictability of nominal exchange rate returns by means of fundamental models. Using a monthly sample of the post-Bretton Woods period we show that the in-sample fit between long-horizon exchange rate returns and various models is not significant if we correct for the persistence that is caused by overlapping data and spurious regression phenomena. The long horizon out-of-sample predictive power of the fundamental exchange rate models is found to be very weak. This is especially the case when we conduct the out-of-sample forecasting tests for a longer time span than that of earlier papers. We show that this failure in forecasting performance, resulting from extending the time span, is due to the absence of cointegration between exchange rates and structural exchange rate models.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 24 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Note: received: September 1997/final version received: November 1998
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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