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Exchange Rate Determination from Monetary Fundamentals: an Aggregation Theoretic Approach

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Author Info
William Barnett (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)
Chang Ho Kwag (POSCO Research Institute)

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Abstract

We incorporate aggregation and index number theory into monetary models of exchange rate determination in a manner that is internally consistent with money market equilibrium. Divisia monetary aggregates and user-cost concepts are used for money supply and opportunity-cost variables in the monetary models. We estimate a flexible price monetary model, a sticky price monetary model, and the Hooper and Morton (1982) model for the US dollar/UK pound exchange rate. We compare forecast results using mean square error, direction of change, and Diebold-Mariano statistics. We find that models with Divisia indexes are better than the random walk assumption in explaining the exchange rate fluctuations. Our results are consistent with the relevant theory and the 'Barnett critique.'

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Kansas, Department of Economics in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS with number 200513.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision: May 2005
Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:200513

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rate; forecasts; vector error correction; aggregation theory; index number theory; Divisia index number;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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  1. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200510, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. William A. Barnett & Shu Wu, 2005. "On user costs of risky monetary assets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 35-50, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Barnett, William A & Fisher, Douglas & Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2086-2119, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2002. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," NBER Working Papers 9393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Tests of Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 239-260 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Travis Nesmith, 1996. "Monetary aggregation theory and statistical index numbers," Working Papers 1996-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Barnett, William A, 1981. "The New Monetary Aggregates: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 485-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Barnett, William A, 1982. "The Optimal Level of Monetary Aggregation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(4), pages 687-710, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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