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Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals

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Author Info

  • Maximo Camacho
  • Marcos Dal Bianco
  • Gabriel Perez Quiros

Abstract

We propose a fundamentals-based econometric model for the weekly changes in the euro-dollar rate with the distinctive feature of mixing economic variables quoted at different frequencies. The model obtains good in-sample fit and, more importantly, encouraging out-of-sample forecasting results at horizons ranging from one-week to one month. Specifically, we obtain statistically significant improvements upon the hard-to-beat random-walk model using traditional statistical measures of forecasting error at all horizons. Moreover, our model obtains a great improvement when we use the direction of change metric, which has more economic relevance than other loss measures. With this measure, our model performs much better at all forecasting horizons than a naive model that predicts the exchange rate as an equal chance to go up or down, with statistically significant improvements.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 1201.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1201

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Related research

Keywords: Exchange rate forecasting; State-space model; Mixed frequencies; Euro-dollar rate;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Saifeddine Chaibi & Jose Felix Izquierdo & Felix Lores & Ana Rubio & Jaime Zurita, 2013. "Some international trends in the regulation of mortgage markets: Implications for Spain," Working Papers 1317, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  2. Tatiana Alonso & Javier Alonso & Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Cristina Rohde & David Tuesta, 2013. "Global Financial Regulatory Trends and Challenges for Insurance and Pensions," Working Papers 1321, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  3. Angel De la Fuente, 2013. "Las finanzas autonomicas en boom y en crisis (2003-12)," Working Papers 1316, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  4. Angel De la Fuente, 2013. "La financiacion de las comunidades autonomas de regimen comun en 2011," Working Papers 1330, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  5. Arias, Jonas E. & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F. & Waggoner, Daniel F., 2014. "Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," International Finance Discussion Papers 1100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Angel de la Fuente, 2013. "La evolución de la financiación de las comunidades autónomas de régimen común, 2002-2011," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 937.13, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  7. Javier Alonso & Tatiana Alonso & Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Cristina Rohde & David Tuesta, 2013. "Tendencias regulatorias financieras globales y retos para las Pensiones y Seguros," Working Papers 1323, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  8. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Le Xia, 2013. "China s RMB Bilateral Swap Agreements: What explains the choice of countries?," Working Papers 1318, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

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