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A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series

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Author Info
Roberto S. Mariano (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, USA and School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University, Singapore)
Yasutomo Murasawa (College of Economics, Osaka Prefecture University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Sakai, Osaka 599-8531, Japan)

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Abstract

Popular monthly coincident indices of business cycles, e.g. the composite index and the Stock-Watson coincident index, have two shortcomings. First, they ignore information contained in quarterly indicators such as real GDP. Second, they lack economic interpretation; hence the heights of peaks and the depths of troughs depend on the choice of an index. This paper extends the Stock-Watson coincident index by applying maximum likelihood factor analysis to a mixed-frequency series of quarterly real GDP and monthly coincident business cycle indicators. The resulting index is related to latent monthly real GDP. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.695
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2003-v18.4/
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 427-443
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:18:y:2003:i:4:p:427-443

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-96, November.
  2. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
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  1. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael Graff, 2005. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde," Working papers 05-108, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  3. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods," Working Papers 2005-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2004. "Dynamic Factor Analysis with Nonlinear Temporal Aggregation Constraints," Econometrics 0401003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2002. "Unobserved Leading and Coincident Common Factors in the Post-War U.S. Business Cycle," Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper 2002008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  8. Evans, Martin D.D., 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5270, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Edoardo Otranto, 2005. "Extraction of Common Signal from Series with Different Frequency," Econometrics 0502011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2002. "Predicting the Cyclical Phases of the Post-War U.S. Leading and Coincident Indicators," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3, pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
  11. Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Wension Vincent, YAO, 2004. "Business Cycle Turning Points : Mixed-Frequency Data with Structural Breaks," Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper 2004024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  12. Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2001. "Markov-Switching Common Dynamic Factor Model with Mixed-Frequency Data," Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper 2001020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  13. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2002. "Some Evidence of Decreasing Volatility of the US Coincident Economic Indicator," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(20), pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
  15. Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box - publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Banco de España Working Papers 0807, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  17. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2004. "Constructing a Coincident Index of Business Cycles without Assuming a One-factor Model," Working Papers 22-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Byeongchan Seong & Sung K. Ahn & Peter A. Zadrozny, 2007. "Cointegration Analysis with Mixed-Frequency Data," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  20. Joao Valle e Azevedo & Siem Jan Koopman & Antonio Rua, 2003. "Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: a Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-069/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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