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A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Roberto S. Mariano (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, USA and School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University, Singapore)
Yasutomo Murasawa (College of Economics, Osaka Prefecture University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Sakai, Osaka 599-8531, Japan)
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Popular monthly coincident indices of business cycles, e.g. the composite index and the Stock-Watson coincident index, have two shortcomings. First, they ignore information contained in quarterly indicators such as real GDP. Second, they lack economic interpretation; hence the heights of peaks and the depths of troughs depend on the choice of an index. This paper extends the Stock-Watson coincident index by applying maximum likelihood factor analysis to a mixed-frequency series of quarterly real GDP and monthly coincident business cycle indicators. The resulting index is related to latent monthly real GDP. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics .
Volume (Year): 18 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 427-443
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:18:y:2003:i:4:p:427-443Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/
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Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Wension Vincent, YAO, 2004.
"Business Cycle Turning Points : Mixed-Frequency Data with Structural Breaks ,"
Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper
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Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2001.
"Markov-Switching Common Dynamic Factor Model with Mixed-Frequency Data ,"
Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper
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Proietti, Tommaso, 2008.
"Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components ,"
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Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2004.
"Constructing a Coincident Index of Business Cycles without Assuming a One-factor Model ,"
Working Papers
22-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised Oct 2004.
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Other versions: S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007.
"Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions ,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
07-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
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Other versions: Byeongchan Seong & Sung K. Ahn & Peter A. Zadrozny, 2007.
"Cointegration Analysis with Mixed-Frequency Data ,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH.
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Joao Valle e Azevedo & Siem Jan Koopman & Antonio Rua, 2003.
"Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: a Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area ,"
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