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In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany

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Author Info
Harm Bandholz ()
Michael Funke ()

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Abstract

In this Paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to a successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting business conditions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 20307.

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Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20307

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Related research
Keywords: Business Cycles; Leading Indicators; Turning Points; Markov Switching; Germany;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Jurgen A Doornik & Henrik Hansen, . "An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normalit," Economics Papers W4&91., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Jaeger, Albert, 1994. "Mechanical Detrending by Hodrick-Prescott Filtering: A Note," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 493-500.
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  5. Ulrich Fritsche & Sabine Stephan, 2000. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles: An Assessment of Properties," Macroeconomics 0004005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Hamilton, James D & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 1996. "What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 27-49, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Sylvia KAUFMANN, 1997. "Measuring Business Cycles with a Dynamic Markov Switching Factor Model," Vienna Economics Papers vie9710, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  18. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. repec:att:wimass:199520 is not listed on IDEAS
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  24. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  25. Godfrey, L. G. & Pesaran, M. H., 1983. "Tests of non-nested regression models: Small sample adjustments and Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 133-154, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Eichengreen, Barry, 2000. "The Euro One Year On," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 355-368, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. W. A. Broock & J. A. Scheinkman & W. D. Dechert & B. LeBaron, 1996. "A test for independence based on the correlation dimension," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 197-235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stefan Gerlach & Matthew S. Yiu, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Current-Quarter Estimates of Economic Activity in Hong Kong," Working Papers 162004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael Graff, 2005. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde," KOF Working papers 05-108, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Harm Bandholz & Michael Funke, 2003. "Die Konstruktion und Schätzung eines Frühindikators für die Konjunkturentwicklung in der Freien und Hansestadt Hamburg," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20305, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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