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Ein multisektoraler Sammelindikator für die Schweizer Konjunktur

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Author Info
Michael Graff

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Abstract

Der multisektorale Sammelindikator für die Schweizer Gesamtkonjunktur weist gegenüber eine Reihe von methodischen Innovationen auf und berücksichtigt eine vergleichsweise grosse Anzahl von Indikatorreihen. Für den Stützbereich von 1991 bis 2002 erhalten wir auf Quartalsbasis einen stabilen Vorlauf von zwei Quartalen vor der Referenzreihe Vorjahreswachstumsrate des BIP, und auch die Niveaus der Wachstumsrate werden gut getroffen. Der neue Sammelindikator zeigt auch gute "out of sample" Prognoseeigenschaften, und zwar sowohl bezüglich des Vorlaufs als auch hinsichtlich der Niveaus der Referenzreihe.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 142 (2006)
Issue (Month): IV (December)
Pages: 529–577
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Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2006-iv-4

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Related research
Keywords: Sammelindikator; BIP-Prognose; Hauptkomponentenanalyse; Informationseffizienz;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Entorf, Horst, 1993. "Constructing leading indicators from non-balanced sectoral business survey series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 211-225, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Todd E. Clark, 2000. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Research Working Paper RWP 00-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Forni, Mario, et al, 2001. "Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C62-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Michael Graff, 2004. "Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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