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EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle

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Author Info
Altissimo, Filippo
Bassanetti, Antonio
Cristadoro, Riccardo
Forni, Mario
Hallin, Marc
Lippi, Marco
Reichlin, Lucrezia
Veronese, Giovanni

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Abstract

This Paper is the result of the Bank of Italy-CEPR project to construct a monthly coincident indicator of the business cycle of the euro area. The index is estimated on the basis of a harmonized data set of monthly statistics of the euro area (951 series) which we constructed from a variety of sources. We use the information of this large panel to obtain an indicator which has three characteristics: (i) it provides real time information on monthly coincident activity since it is updated as new information become available in a non-synchronous way; (ii) it is cleaned from noise originated from measurement error and idiosyncratic national and sectoral dynamics; (iii) it is cleaned from seasonal and short-run dynamics through a filter that requires very little revision at the end of the sample. Unlike other methods used in the literature, the procedure takes into consideration the cross-country as well as the within-country correlation structure and exploits all information on dynamic cross-correlations. As a by product of our analysis, we provide a characterization of the commonality and dynamic relations of the series in the data set with respect to the coincident indicator and a dating of the euro area cycle.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3108.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3108

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Related research
Keywords: business cycle; dynamic factor model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - General

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," LEM Papers Series 2003/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Artis, M. & Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 1999. "The European Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers eco99/24, European University Institute.
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  3. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the US," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 109-134, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Andrew Dickerson & Heather Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 1998. "Business Cycle Correspondence in the European Union," Empirica, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 49-75, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Westermann, Frank, 2002. "Output Dynamics of the G7 Countries--Stochastic Trends and Cyclical Movements," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2239-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
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  11. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Victor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Programs TRAMO and SEATS, Instruction for User (Beta Version: september 1996)," Banco de España Working Papers 9628, Banco de España.
  14. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  15. Victor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Programs TRAMO and SEATS, Instruction for User (Beta Version: september 1996)," Banco de España Working Papers 9628, Banco de España.
  16. C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Concordance in Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 00/37, International Monetary Fund.
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