Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach
AbstractIn this paper, we develop an aggregation procedure using time--varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time--varying weights is based on some stylised features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows for a unified treatment of cyclical and seasonal fluctuations and also accommodates the dynamic propagation of shocks across countries. We find evidence for a "world business cycle" as well as evidence for a distinct European common component. We also find some evidence that macroeconomic fluctuations have become more closely linked across industrial economies in the period after 1973. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2003.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 113 (2003)
Issue (Month): 484 (January)
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Other versions of this item:
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar Prasad, 1999. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations - A New Approach," IMF Working Papers 99/154, International Monetary Fund.
- Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Prasad, Eswar, 2002. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 487, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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