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Testing for ARCH in the Presence of a Possibly Misspecified Conditional Mean

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  • Robin L. Lumsdaine

    (Princeton University)

  • Serena Ng

    ()
    (Boston College)

Abstract

Ever since the development of the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model (Engle [1982]), testing for the presence of ARCH has become a routine diagnostic. One popular method of testing for ARCH is T times the R^2 from a regression of squared residuals on p of its lags. This test has been shown to have a Lagrange multiplier interpretation and is asymptotically distributed as a Chi^2(p) random variable. Underlying this test is the assumption of a correctly specified conditional mean. In this paper, we consider the properties of the ARCH test when there is a possibly misspecified conditional mean. Examples of misspecification include omitted variables, structural change, and parameter instability. We show that misspecification will lead to overrejection of the null of conditional homoskedasticity. We demonstrate the use of recursive residuals to improve the fit of a first stage conditional mean regression. We illustrate these results via Monte Carlo simulation and consider two empirical examples.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 370.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 27 Aug 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:370

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Keywords: ARCH; model misspecification; recursive residuals; Lagrange Multiplier test;

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References

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  1. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  2. Serena Ng & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1997. "Analysis of Vector Autoregressions in the Presence of Shifts in Mean," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 379, Boston College Department of Economics.
  3. Lee, Byung-Joo, 1992. "A Heteroskedasticity Test Robust to Conditional Mean Misspecification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 159-71, January.
  4. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  5. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1991. "On the application of robust, regression- based diagnostics to models of conditional means and conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 5-46, January.
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  7. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-54, July.
  8. Hong, Yongmiao & Shehadeh, Ramsey D, 1999. "A New Test for ARCH Effects and Its Finite-Sample Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 91-108, January.
  9. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1997. "ARCH and Bilinearity as Competing Models for Nonlinear Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 43-50, January.
  10. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1991. "Specification testing and quasi-maximum- likelihood estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 29-55.
  11. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
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  14. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
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  16. Harvey, A. C. & Phillips, G. D. A., 1974. "A comparison of the power of some tests for heteroskedasticity in the general linear model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 307-316, December.
  17. Weiss, Andrew A., 1986. "Asymptotic Theory for ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 107-131, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rituparna Kar & Nityananda Sarkar, 2006. "Mean and volatility dynamics of Indian rupee/US dollar exchange rate series: an empirical investigation," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 41-69, March.
  2. Manfred M. Fischer & Wolfgang Koller, 2001. "Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Univariate Time Series: An Empirical Investigation of the Austrian Unemployment Rate," ERSA conference papers ersa01p233, European Regional Science Association.
  3. Ludwig, Alexander, 2013. "Sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone: a time-varying coefficient approach," MPRA Paper 52340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
  5. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Amine Lahiani, 2013. "On the short- and long-run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets," Working Papers hal-00798036, HAL.
  6. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "Large versus small foreign exchange interventions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 114-123.
  7. M. Angeles Carnero & Daniel Peña & Esther Ruiz, 2001. "Outliers And Conditional Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity In Time Series," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws010704, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  8. Austin, Darran & Ward, Bert & Dalziel, Paul, 2007. "The demand for money in China 1987-2004: A non-linear modelling approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 190-204.
  9. Elena Andreou & Bas J.M. Werker, 2014. "Residual-based Rank Specification Tests for AR-GARCH type models," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 02-2014, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  10. Sitzia, Bruno & Iovino, Doriana, 2008. "Nonlinearities in Exchange rates: Double EGARCH Threshold Models for Forecasting Volatility," MPRA Paper 8661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Carlos Escanciano, J., 2008. "Joint and marginal specification tests for conditional mean and variance models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 74-87, March.
  12. Metiu Norbert, 2011. "Financial contagion in developed sovereign bond markets," Research Memorandum 004, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  13. Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2006. "Joint Diagnostic Tests for Conditional Mean and Variance Specifications," Faculty Working Papers 02/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  14. Bill Russell, 2013. "ARCH and structural breaks in United States inflation," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 277, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  15. Metiu, Norbert, 2012. "Sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 35-38.
  16. Ewa Ratuszny, 2013. "Robust Estimation in VaR Modelling - Univariate Approaches using Bounded Innovation Propagation and Regression Quantiles Methodology," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 5(1), pages 35-63, March.
  17. E. Ruiz & M.A. Carnero & D. Pereira, 2004. "Effects of Level Outliers on the Identification and Estimation of GARCH Models," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 21, Econometric Society.
  18. Kyrtsou, Catherine, 2008. "Re-examining the sources of heteroskedasticity: The paradigm of noisy chaotic models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(27), pages 6785-6789.

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