Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Analysis Of Vector Autoregressions In The Presence Of Shifts In Mean

Contents:

Author Info

  • Serena Ng
  • Timothy Vogelsang

Abstract

This paper considers the implications of mean shifts in a multivariate setting. It is shown that under the additive outlier type mean shift specification, the intercept in each equation of the vector autoregression (VAR) will be subject to multiple shifts when the break dates of the mean shifts to the univariate series do not coincide. Conversely, under the innovative outlier type mean shift specification, both the univariate and the multivariate time series are subject to multiple shifts when mean shifts to the innovation processes occur at different dates. We consider two procedures, the first removes the shifts series by series before forming the VAR, and the second removes intercept shifts in the VAR directly. The pros and cons of both methods are discussed.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1081/ETC-120015788
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Econometric Reviews.

Volume (Year): 21 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 353-381

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:21:y:2002:i:3:p:353-381

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/LECR20

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/LECR20

Related research

Keywords: Trend break; Structural change; Causality tests; Forecasting;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bianchi, Marco, 1995. "Granger Causality in the Presence of Structural Changes," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1995018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  2. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
  4. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
  5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  7. Ben-David, D. & Papell, D.H., 1995. "The Great War, The Great Crash and Steady State Growth: Some New Evidence an Old Stylized Fact," Papers 36-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  8. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-93, December.
  9. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  10. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  11. Perron, P., 1991. "A Test for Changes in a Polynomial Trend Functions for a Dynamioc Time Series," Papers 363, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  12. Chu, Chia-Shang James & White, Halbert, 1992. "A Direct Test for Changing Trend," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 289-99, July.
  13. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  14. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
  15. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June.
  16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Lutkepohl, H, 1989. "The Stability Assumption in Tests of Causality between Money and Income," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 139-50.
  18. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
  20. Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1998. "Testing for a Shift in Mean without Having to Estimate Serial-Correlation Parameters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 73-80, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Ng, Serena, 1999. "Testing for ARCH in the presence of a possibly misspecified conditional mean," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 257-279, December.
  2. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Structural Breaks in the International Transmission of Inflation," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 119, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  3. Alfredo M. Pereira & Martin B. Schmidt, 2007. "Structural Breaks in Public Infrastructure Investment in the U.S," Working Papers 55, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  4. Thierno Balde & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2005. "Finite sample effects of additive outliers on the Granger-causality test with an application to money growth and inflation in Peru," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(13), pages 841-844.
  5. Yang Fan & Teng Jianzhou, 2011. "Studying on the monetary transmission mechanism in China in the presence of structural changes," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 1(4), pages 334-357, August.
  6. Salamaliki, Paraskevi K. & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2013. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G-7: Multi-horizon causality testing in the presence of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 108-121.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:21:y:2002:i:3:p:353-381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.