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Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries

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Author Info
Dan Ben-David
David H. Papell

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Abstract

This paper proposes an explicit test for determining the significance and the timing of slowdowns in economic growth. We examine a large sample of countries and find that a majority - though not all - exhibit a significant structural break in their postwar growth rates. We find that (a) most industrialized countries experienced postwar growth slowdowns in the early 1970s, though (b) the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom did not, and (c) developing countries (and in particular, Latin American countries) tended to experience much more severe slowdowns which, in contrast with the more developed countries, began nearly a decade later. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 80 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 561-571
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:80:y:1998:i:4:p:561-571

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ben-David, Dan, 1994. "Convergence Clubs and Diverging Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bruno, Michael, 1984. "Raw Materials, Profits, and the Productivity Slowdown," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 1-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Fischer, Stanley, 1988. "Symposium on the Slowdown in Productivity Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 3-7, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Paul M. Romer, 1987. "Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 163-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  8. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Griliches, Zvi, 1980. "R & D and the Productivity Slowdown," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 343-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  13. Ben-David, D. & Papell, D.H., 1995. "The Great War, The Great Crash and Steady State Growth: Some New Evidence an Old Stylized Fact," Papers 36-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  14. Kumiharu Shigehara, 1992. "Causes of declining growth in industrialized countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 15-39.
  15. Nordhaus, William D., 1982. "Economic policy in the face of declining productivity growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 131-157. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1997. "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 134-49, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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