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The Stability Assumption in Tests of Causality between Money and Income

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  • Lutkepohl, H

Abstract

This note argues that structural stability is an important condition for tests of Granger-causality. Despite this fact the standard causality tests are sometimes appiled to data for which structural stability cannot be assume a priori. Therefore, the stability of GNP/M1 systems of the U.S., Canada, and West Germany in the aftermath of the 1973/74 oil crisis is analyzed using formal statistical tests. Prediction tests are particularly useful for that purpose. The stability of the model for Canadian data is rejected whereas stability is not rejected for the U.S. and West Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutkepohl, H, 1989. "The Stability Assumption in Tests of Causality between Money and Income," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 139-150.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:14:y:1989:i:2:p:139-50
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    Cited by:

    1. Bodart, Vincent & Candelon, Bertrand, 2009. "Evidence of interdependence and contagion using a frequency domain framework," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 140-150, June.
    2. Serena Ng & Timothy Vogelsang, 2002. "Analysis Of Vector Autoregressions In The Presence Of Shifts In Mean," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 353-381.
    3. Mthokozisi Mlilo & Matamela Netshikulwe, 2017. "Re-testing Wagner's Law: Structural breaks and disaggregated data for South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(4), pages 49-61.

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