A Direct Test for Changing Trend

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A Direct Test for Changing Trend

Author Info

Chu, Chia-Shang James
White, Halbert

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Halbert White

Abstract

The authors consider tests for changing trend that do not require prior knowledge about the location of the changepoint. The limiting distribution is derived from the functional central limit theorem and the critical value from the hitting probability of a Brownian bridge. Applying a test sensitive to the alternative of trend stationarity with structural breaks, they find that for real gross national product, real per capita gross national product, and real wages before World War II the hypothesis of trend stationarity is rejected.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 10 (1992)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 289-99
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:10:y:1992:i:3:p:289-99

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Jamie Emerson & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Testing for Structural Change of a Time Trend Regression in Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 15, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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- Serena Ng & Timothy Vogelsang, 2002. "Analysis Of Vector Autoregressions In The Presence Of Shifts In Mean," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 353-381. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pierre Perron & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2007. "Estimating Deterministic Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-020, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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- Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Estimating deterministic trends with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 56-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2007. "A Non-local Perspective on the Power Properties of the CUSUM and CUSUM of Squares Tests for Structural Change," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-019, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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Alberto Bagnai & Stefano Manzocchi, 1999. "Current-Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 143-163, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998. [Downloadable!]
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