IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwm/wpaper/55.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural Breaks in Public Infrastructure Investment in the U.S

Author

Listed:
  • Alfredo M. Pereira

    (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary)

  • Martin B. Schmidt

    (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary)

Abstract

This paper investigates the possible existence and timing of structural breaks in public infrastructure investment in the US. Results are obtained using both the conventional Chow tests as well as the multivariate Bai, Lumsdaine and Stock tests which are more appropriate for finding breaks in the context of a VAR structure. All tests consider aggregate public investment as well as nine different disaggregated categories of public investment. In addition, multivariate tests include private output, employment, and investment, the variables usually considered in the literature. Empirical results suggest that a break in the mean of public investment occurred in the late 1970s or early 1980s. This is true at the aggregate level as well as for most types of public infrastructures. The measurement of the economic effects of public investment is a critical piece of information to understand the effects of any fiscal stimulus package. The empirical evidence in the literature is somewhat inconclusive at least partially because structural breaks have been largely ignored. We regard the evidence presented in this paper as the first step in the process of revisiting the analysis of the effects of such investments in a VAR framework while accounting for the presence of structural breaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo M. Pereira & Martin B. Schmidt, 2007. "Structural Breaks in Public Infrastructure Investment in the U.S," Working Papers 55, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economics.wm.edu/wp/cwm_wp55rev.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
    2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    3. Serena Ng & Timothy Vogelsang, 2002. "Analysis Of Vector Autoregressions In The Presence Of Shifts In Mean," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 353-381.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    5. Jushan Bai & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1998. "Testing For and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432.
    6. Alfredo Pereira & Jorge Andraz, 2004. "Public highway spending and state spillovers in the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 785-788.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Ball & Anupam Nanda, 2014. "Does Infrastructure Investment Stimulate Building Supply? The Case of the English Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 425-438, March.
    2. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2008. "On the Regional Incidence of Public Investment in Highways in the USA," Working Papers 70, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary, revised 15 Sep 2010.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Idoudi, Nadhem & Khalaf, Lynda & Yelou, Clement, 2007. "Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1219-1244, December.
    2. Dickinson, David & Liu, Jia, 2007. "The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-111.
    3. Devi, P. Indira & Shanmugam, K.R. & Jayasree, M.G., 2012. "Compensating Wages for Occupational Risks of Farm Workers in India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 67(2), pages 1-12.
    4. Hervé Le Bihan, 2004. "Tests de ruptures : une application au PIB tendanciel français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 133-154.
    5. Bruinshoofd, W.A. & Candelon, B. & Raabe, K., 2005. "Banking sector strength and the transmission of currency crises," Research Memorandum 022, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    6. Seong Yeon Chang & Pierre Perron, 2016. "Inference on a Structural Break in Trend with Fractionally Integrated Errors," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 555-574, July.
    7. Oka, Tatsushi & Perron, Pierre, 2018. "Testing for common breaks in a multiple equations system," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 66-85.
    8. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2019-02, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    9. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
    10. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2008. "Estimating and Testing Multiple Structural Changes in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-017, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    11. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "The limit distribution of the estimates in cointegrated regression models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 59-73, September.
    12. Venkata Jandhyala & Stergios Fotopoulos & Ian MacNeill & Pengyu Liu, 2013. "Inference for single and multiple change-points in time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 423-446, July.
    13. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2015. "Using OLS to Estimate and Test for Structural Changes in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 119-144, January.
    14. Bertrand Candelon & Gianluca Cubadda, 2006. "Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models across Frequencies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 741-760, December.
    15. Todd E. Clark, 2006. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 563-587.
    16. Oka, Tatsushi & Qu, Zhongjun, 2011. "Estimating structural changes in regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 248-267, June.
    17. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
    18. Manner, Hans & Blatt, Dominik & Candelon, Bertrand, 2014. "Detecting financial contagion in a multivariate system," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100411, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Zongwu Cai & Seong Yeon Chang, 2018. "A New Test In A Predictive Regression with Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201811, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2018.
    20. Sharma, Abhijit & di Falco, Salvatore & Fraser, Iain, 2015. "Consumption of Salt Rich Products in the UK: Impact of The Reduced Salt Campaign," MPRA Paper 62359, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public investment; infrastructure; structural breaks; VAR modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daifeng He or Alfredo Pereira (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decwmus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.