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Estimating and Testing Multiple Structural Changes in Models with Endogenous Regressors

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Author Info

  • Pierre Perron

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Boston University)

  • Yohei Yamamoto

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Boston University)

Abstract

We consider the problem of estimating and testing for multiple breaks in a single equation framework with regressors that are endogenous, i.e., correlated with the errors. First, we show based on standard assumptions about the regressors, instruments and errors that the second stage regression of the instrumental variable (IV) procedure involves regressors and errors that satisfy all the assumptions in Perron and Qu (2006) so that the results about consistency, rate of convergence and limit distributions of the estimates of the break dates, as well as the limit distributions of the tests, are obtained as simple consequences. More importantly from a practical perspective, we show that even in the presence of endogenous regressors, it is still preferable to simply estimate the break dates and test for structural change using the usual ordinary least-squares (OLS) framework. It delivers estimates of the break dates with higher precision and tests with higher power compared to those obtained using an IV method. To illustrate the relevance of our theoretical results, we consider the stability of the New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curve. IV-based methods do not indicate any instability. On the other hand, OLS-based ones strongly indicate a change in 1991:1 and that after this date the model looses all explanatory power.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston University - Department of Economics in its series Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number wp2008-017.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2008-017

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Keywords: structural change; instrument variables; two-stage least-squares; parameter variations;

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References

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  2. Hall, Alastair R. & Han, Sanggohn & Boldea, Otilia, 2008. "Asymptotic Distribution Theory for Break Point Estimators in Models Estimated via 2SLS," MPRA Paper 9472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  4. Perron, Pierre & Qu, Zhongjun, 2006. "Estimating restricted structural change models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 373-399, October.
  5. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2007. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-020, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Nov 2008.
  6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  7. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Kurmann, Andre, 2007. "VAR-based estimation of Euler equations with an application to New Keynesian pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 767-796, March.
  9. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2006. "The Limit Distribution of the Estimates in Cointegrated Regression Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-064, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  10. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2010. "Has Models' Forecasting Performance for US Output Growth and Inflation Changed over Time, and When?," Working Papers 10-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  11. Jushan Bai, 2000. "Vector Autoregressive Models with Structural Changes in Regression Coefficients and in Variance-Covariance Matrices," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 1(2), pages 303-339, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Hall, Alastair R. & Han, Sanggohn & Boldea, Otilia, 2012. "Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 281-302.
  2. Pierre Perron & Jing Zhou, 2008. "Testing Jointly for Structural Changes in the Error Variance and Coefficients of a Linear Regression Model," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-011, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  3. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2011. "Using OLS to Estimate and Test for Structural Changes in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-053, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  5. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.

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