IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cai/ecoldc/ecop_163_0133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tests de rupture : une application au PIB tendanciel français

Author

Listed:
  • Hervé Le Bihan

Abstract

This paper presents and applies to GDP recently developed tests for structural change, which allow for the endogenous statistical determination of trend growth break dates and numbers of break-points. These tests serve to investigate the existence of breaks in French trend GDP from 1963 to 2001 using both a segmented trend approach and a difference-stationary approach. Only one significant break (the 1974 slowdown) is found. Consequently, trend growth is evaluated at 5.1% prior to 1974 and 2.1% after 1974.

Suggested Citation

  • Hervé Le Bihan, 2004. "Tests de rupture : une application au PIB tendanciel français," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 163(2), pages 133-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_163_0133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=ECOP_163_0133
    Download Restriction: free
    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economie-et-prevision-1-2004-2-page-133.htm
    Download Restriction: free
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    3. Sandrine Duchêne & Gérard Forgeot & Alain Jacquot, 1997. "Les évolutions récentes de la productivité du travail," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 301(1), pages 169-192.
    4. Kim, In-Moo, 1997. "Detecting the number of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 145-148, December.
    5. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lee, Inpyo & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "Optimal changepoint tests for normal linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 9-38, January.
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    7. Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 184-200, May.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    9. Éric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2002. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 357-388.
    10. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    11. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    12. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    13. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
    14. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
    15. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 94-104, February.
    16. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    17. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    18. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    19. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
    20. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    21. repec:adr:anecst:y:2002:i:67-68:p:13 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Catherine Doz & Guillaume Rabault & Nicolas Sobczak, 1995. "Décomposition tendance-cycle : estimations par des méthodes statistiques univariées," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 120(4), pages 73-93.
    23. Baghli, M. & Bouthevilain, C. & De Bandt, O. & Fraisse, H. & Le Bihan, H. & Rousseaux, P., 2002. "PIB potentiel et écart de PIB : quelques évaluations pour la France," Working papers 89, Banque de France.
    24. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    25. Jushan Bai & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1998. "Testing For and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432.
    26. Philippine Cour & Henri Sterdyniak & Hervé Le Bihan, 1997. "La croissance potentielle," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03426738, HAL.
    27. Philippine Cour & Henri Sterdyniak & Hervé Le Bihan, 1997. "La notion de croissance potentielle a-t-elle un sens ?," Post-Print hal-03428414, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Cahn & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2010. "Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 139-165, August.
    2. Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2010. "Quelle dette publique à l'horizon 2030 en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 5-33.
    3. Clément Bosquet & Michel Fouquin, 2008. "Productivité du travail : la fin du processus de convergence ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 419(1), pages 125-142.
    4. Clément Bosquet & Michel Fouquin, 2008. "Productivité du travail : la fin du processus de convergence ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 419(1), pages 125-142.
    5. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect again shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration," Post-Print halshs-00371069, HAL.
    6. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect against external shocks?: An assessment of Latin American integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-118.
    7. Potier, L. & Saint-Guilhem, A., 2006. "Adjustment scenarios for the US current account balance:an assessment based on different NiGEM calibrations," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 06, pages 19-47, Winter.
    8. Jean-Pierre Allégret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 0809, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61qna0rp is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Charbel Macdissi & Jean-François Verne, 2009. "Un essai d'estimation de la production potentielle au Liban," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 143-159.
    11. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Monetary Integration Issues in Latin America: A Multivariate Assessment," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(3), pages 279-308, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    3. Jouini, Jamel & Boutahar, Mohamed, 2005. "Evidence on structural changes in U.S. time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 391-422, May.
    4. Devi, P. Indira & Shanmugam, K.R. & Jayasree, M.G., 2012. "Compensating Wages for Occupational Risks of Farm Workers in India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 67(2), pages 1-12.
    5. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    6. D.K. Srivastava & K.R. Shanmugam, 2012. "Stationarity Test for Aggregate Outputs in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2012-072, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    7. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    8. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Diaz-Roldan, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2007. "Change of regime and Phillips curve stability: The case of Spain, 1964-2002," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 453-462.
    9. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    10. Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2007. "Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1196-1218, December.
    11. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, August.
    12. Purba Roy Choudhury & Biswajit Chatterjee, 2017. "Growth in India’s Service Sector: Implications of Structural Breaks," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 75-99, March.
    13. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James C., 2008. "Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
    15. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1998. "Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 561-571, November.
    16. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Perron, Pierre, 2020. "L'estimation de modèles avec changements structurels multiples," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 96(4), pages 789-837, Décembre.
    18. Kurozumi, Eiji & Tuvaandorj, Purevdorj, 2011. "Model selection criteria in multivariate models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 218-238, October.
    19. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2019-02, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    20. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_163_0133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cairn.info/revue-economie-et-prevision.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.