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Does a Monetary Union protect again shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration

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  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    ()
    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    ()
    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

Abstract

This paper analyses the monetary consequences of the Latin-American trade integration process. We consider a sample of five countries -Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay- spanning the period 1991-2007. The main question raised pertains to the feasibility of a monetary union between L.A. economies. To this end, we study whether this set of countries is characterized by business cycle synchronization with the occurrence of common shocks, a strong similarity in the adjustment process and the convergence of policy responses. We focus especially our attention on two points. First, we tryto determine to what extent international disturbances influence the domestic business cycles through trade and/or financial channels. Second, we analyze the impact of the adoption of different exchange rate regimes on the countries' responses to shocks. All these features are the main issues in the literature relative to regional integration and OCA process.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00371069.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Publication status: Published, Journal of Policy Modeling / Journal of Policy Modelling, 2009, 31, n° 1, pp. 102-118
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00371069

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00371069/en/
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Related research

Keywords: bayesian VAR ; business cycles ; Latin American countries ; optimum currency area;

References

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  1. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  2. Fabio Canova, 2003. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Economics Working Papers 925, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2004.
  3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 61-118, 01.
  4. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Vogelsang, T.J. & Perron, P., 1994. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," Cahiers de recherche 9422, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  6. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Addicted to Dollars," CEMA Working Papers 594, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  8. Corbo, Vittorio, 2001. "Is it time for a common currency for the Americas?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 241-248, April.
  9. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance," Working Papers 126, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  10. Martín González-Rozada & EduardoLevy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Salvatore, Dominick, 2001. "Which countries in the Americas should dollarize?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 347-355, April.
  13. Hallwood, Paul & Marsh, Ian W. & Scheibe, Jorg, 2006. "An assessment of the case for monetary union or official dollarization in five Latin American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 52-66, March.
  14. Mariam Camarero & Renato G. Flores, Jr. & Cecilio R. Tamarit, . "Monetary Union and productivity differences in Mercosur countries," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 03-04, FEDEA.
  15. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance: A Latin American Perspective," Working Papers 43, Bank of Greece.
  16. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001. "Fixing for your life," MPRA Paper 13873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Rose, Andrew K, 2006. "A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Bretton Woods, Reversed," CEPR Discussion Papers 5854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2006. "Disentangling business cycles and macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and unobserved components model approaches," Post-Print halshs-00134317, HAL.
  19. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/210, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  21. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2007. "External shocks, U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2512-2520, November.
  22. Larrain Felipe & Jose Tavares, 2003. "Regional Currencies Versus Dollarization: Options for Asia and the Americas," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 35-49.
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