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Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles

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  • Aiolfi, Marco
  • Catão, Luis A. V.
  • Timmermann, Allan G

Abstract

We develop a common factor approach to reconstruct new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico ("LAC-4") from an unprecedentedly comprehensive dataset spanning 135 years. We establish the robustness of our indices through a variety of tests, use the indices to explore business cycle properties in LAC-4 and compare them with other countries across outward- and inward-looking policy regimes. We find that output persistence in LAC-4 has been consistently high across regimes, whereas volatility was strikingly high during the pre-1929 outward-looking regime but declined during the most recent shift towards greater openness. We also find a sizeable common regional factor driven by output and interest rates in advanced countries, including during inward-looking regimes

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7671.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7671

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Keywords: factor models; International business cycles; Latin America;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The contribution of domestic, regional, and international factors to Latin America’s business cycle," ISAE Working Papers 105, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  2. Luis A. V. Catao & Ana Fostel & Sandeep Kapur, 2008. "Persistent Gaps and Default Traps," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0803, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  3. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Post-Print halshs-00269122, HAL.
  4. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Monetary Integration Issues in Latin America: A Multivariate Assessment," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(3), pages 279-308, September.
  5. Raúl Ibarra-Ramírez, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation in Mexico Using Factor Models: Do Disaggregated CPI Data Improve Forecast Accuracy?," Working Papers 2010-01, Banco de México.
  6. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/210, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Altug, Sumru G. & Bildirici, Melike, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime-switching Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect against external shocks?: An assessment of Latin American integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-118.
  9. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2012. "Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-304.
  10. Anoop Singh, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 06/166, International Monetary Fund.
  11. repec:udt:wpbsdt:2012-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2013. "The emergence of a European region: Business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers 13/01, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  13. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2011. "Dynamic factors in the presence of blocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 29-41, July.

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