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Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles

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  • Aiolfi, Marco
  • Catão, Luis A. V.
  • Timmermann, Allan G

Abstract

We develop a common factor approach to reconstruct new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico ("LAC-4") from an unprecedentedly comprehensive dataset spanning 135 years. We establish the robustness of our indices through a variety of tests, use the indices to explore business cycle properties in LAC-4 and compare them with other countries across outward- and inward-looking policy regimes. We find that output persistence in LAC-4 has been consistently high across regimes, whereas volatility was strikingly high during the pre-1929 outward-looking regime but declined during the most recent shift towards greater openness. We also find a sizeable common regional factor driven by output and interest rates in advanced countries, including during inward-looking regimes

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7671.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7671

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Keywords: factor models; International business cycles; Latin America;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Boschi, Melisso & Girardi, Alessandro, 2009. "The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America's business cycle," MPRA Paper 28147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2011. "Dynamic factors in the presence of blocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 29-41, July.
  3. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect against external shocks?: An assessment of Latin American integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-118.
  4. Sumru AltuÄŸ & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Working Papers 0032, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
  5. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/210, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Raúl Ibarra-Ramírez, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation in Mexico Using Factor Models: Do Disaggregated CPI Data Improve Forecast Accuracy?," Working Papers 2010-01, Banco de México.
  7. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Post-Print halshs-00269122, HAL.
  8. Catão, Luis A.V. & Fostel, Ana & Kapur, Sandeep, 2009. "Persistent gaps and default traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 271-284, July.
  9. Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2013. "The emergence of a European region: Business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York 13/01, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  10. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Monetary Integration Issues in Latin America: A Multivariate Assessment," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(3), pages 279-308, September.
  11. repec:udt:wpbsdt:2012-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Anoop Singh, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 06/166, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2012. "Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-304.

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