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Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination

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Author Info
Reinhart, Carmen
Vegh, Carlos

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Abstract

Exchange rate-based stabilization programs in chronic-inflation countries have often been accompanied by an initial expansion of private consumption followed by a contraction. This consumption cycle has been attributed to lack of credibility, in the sense that the public views the reduction in the devaluation rate as temporary. This paper assesses the quantitative relevance of the 'temporariness' hypothesis by comparing the predictions of a simple model to the actual figures for seven major programs. The paper concludes that nominal interest rates must fall substantially for the 'temporariness' hypothesis to account for an important fraction of the observed consumption booms.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13898/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13898.

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Date of creation: Apr 1995
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Development Econommics 2.46(1995): pp. 357-378
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13898

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Related research
Keywords: inflation stabilization credibility consumption booms interest rates current account deficits;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Kimbrough, Kent P., 1992. "Speculative attacks: The roles of intertemporal substitution and the interest elasticity of the demand for money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 689-710. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jorge Roldos, 1993. "On Credible Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 93/90, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Eckstein, Z. & Leiderman, L., 1991. "Seignorage and the Welfare Cost of Inflation; Evidence from an Intertemporal Model of Money and Consumption," Papers 7-91, Tel Aviv.
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  4. Yvon Fauvel & Lucie Samson, 1991. "Intertemporal Substitution and Durable Goods: An Empirical Analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 192-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Consumer Durables and the Real Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 1148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Arrau, Patricio, 1990. "Intertemporal substitution in a monetary framework : evidence from Chile and Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 549, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ceglowski, Janet, 1991. "Intertemporal substitution in import demand," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 118-130, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Reinhart, Vincent, 1990. "Targeting Nominal Income in a Dynamic Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 427-43, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  10. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1982. "The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 801-811, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1994. "Stabilization dynamics and backward-looking contracts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 59-84, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Giovannini, Alberto, 1985. "Saving and the real interest rate in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 197-217, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1987. "Exchange Rate Management: Intertemporal Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 107-23, March.
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