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Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination

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  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Vegh, Carlos

Abstract

Exchange rate-based stabilization programs in chronic-inflation countries have often been accompanied by an initial expansion of private consumption followed by a contraction. This consumption cycle has been attributed to lack of credibility, in the sense that the public views the reduction in the devaluation rate as temporary. This paper assesses the quantitative relevance of the 'temporariness' hypothesis by comparing the predictions of a simple model to the actual figures for seven major programs. The paper concludes that nominal interest rates must fall substantially for the 'temporariness' hypothesis to account for an important fraction of the observed consumption booms.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13898/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13898.

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Date of creation: Apr 1995
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Development Econommics 2.46(1995): pp. 357-378
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13898

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Keywords: inflation stabilization credibility consumption booms interest rates current account deficits;

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References

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  1. José De Gregorio & Pablo E. Guidotti & Carlos A. Végh, 1998. "Inflation Stabilization and the Consumption of Durable Goods," Documentos de Trabajo 26, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  2. Robert E. Hall, 1981. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1988. "Costly Trade Liberalizations: Durable Goods and Capital Mobility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 461-473, September.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Arrau, Patricio & DeGregorio, Jose & Wickham, Peter, 1995. "The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation," MPRA Paper 14096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Guillermo Calvo, 1993. "Stabilization Dynamics and Backward-Looking Contracts," IMF Working Papers 93/29, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1985. "Consumer Durables and the Real Interest Rate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 353-62, August.
  8. Yvon Fauvel & Lucie Samson, 1991. "Intertemporal Substitution and Durable Goods: An Empirical Analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 192-205, February.
  9. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Working Papers 3372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1982. "The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 801-811, September.
  11. Reinhart, Vincent, 1990. "Targeting Nominal Income in a Dynamic Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 427-43, November.
  12. Giovannini, Alberto, 1985. "Saving and the real interest rate in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 197-217, August.
  13. Zvi Eckstein & Leonardo Leiderman, 1991. "Seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflation: evidence from an intertemporal model of money and consumption," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 40, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Kimbrough, Kent P., 1992. "Speculative attacks: The roles of intertemporal substitution and the interest elasticity of the demand for money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 689-710.
  15. Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks," IMF Working Papers 91/100, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  17. Ceglowski, Janet, 1991. "Intertemporal substitution in import demand," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 118-130, March.
  18. Rossi, JoseW., 1989. "The demand for money in Brazil : What happened in the 1980s?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 357-367, October.
  19. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1992. "Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Intertemporal consumption substitution and inflation stabilization:An empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 13427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Végh, 1990. "Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy: The Predetermined Exchange Rates Case," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 753-776, December.
  22. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  23. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1987. "Exchange Rate Management: Intertemporal Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 107-23, March.
  24. Nicola Rossi, 1988. "Government Spending, the Real Interest Rate, and the Behavior of Liquidity-Constrained Consumers in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 104-140, March.
  25. Arrau, Patricio, 1990. "Intertemporal substitution in a monetary framework : evidence from Chile and Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 549, The World Bank.
  26. Jose De Gregorio & Peter Wickham & Patricio Arrau & Carmen Reinhart, 1991. "The Demand for Money in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/45, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December.
  28. Fauvel, Y. & Samson, L., 1989. "Intertemporal Substitution And Durable Goods: An Empircal Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 8916, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
  29. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
  30. Jorge Roldos, 1993. "On Credible Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 93/90, International Monetary Fund.
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