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Intertemporal substitution in a monetary framework : evidence from Chile and Mexico

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  • Arrau, Patricio
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    Abstract

    This paper estimates a monetary Euler system of a utility-maximizing representative consumer from two inflationary Latin American countries: Chile in the late seventies and Mexico in the early eighties. The results show that money is necessary to get reasonable parameters of the utility function. For both countries, tests of the overidentifying restrictions are satisfactory at usual levels of significance and estimates for the intertemporal elasticity of substitution are greater than one. The results indicate that velocity sensitivity to the nominal interest rate is lower for Chile than for Mexico, but this difference could be explained by a model of currency substitution. More important, a model of currency substitution may be the appropriate way to explain the monetary puzzle observed in Mexico after the stabilization attempt of late 1987. Despite the fact that inflation was sharply (and permanently) reduced, velocity did not go down. The model of currency substitution suggests that a good way to hedge against discrete devaluation would be to increase liquidity in foreign - not domestic - currency.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 549.

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    Date of creation: 31 Dec 1990
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    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:549

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT; Inequality;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke, 1982. "Adjustment Costs, Durables, and Aggregate Consumption," NBER Working Papers 1038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1985. "Currency substitution and the real exchange rate: the utility maximization approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 175-188, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Patricio Arrau & Jorge Quiroz & Rómulo Chumacero, 1992. "Ahorro Fiscal y Tipo de Cambio Real," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 29(88), pages 349-386.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," MPRA Paper 13898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Intertemporal consumption substitution and inflation stabilization:An empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 13427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Arrau, Patricio & de Gregorio, Jose, 1991. "Financial innovation and money demand : theory and empirical implementation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 585, The World Bank.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries: The empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 13689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks," IMF Working Papers 91/100, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Arrau, Patricio & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1991. "Intertemporal substitution, risk aversion, and private savings in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 682, The World Bank.

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