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The demand for money in developing countries : assessing the role of financial innovation

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Author Info
Arrau, Patricio
De Gregorio, Jose
Reinhart, Carmen
Wickham, Peter

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Abstract

Traditional specifications of money demand have commonly been plagued by persistent overprediction, implausible parameter estimates, andhighly autocorrelated errors. The authors argue that some of these problems stem from the failure to account for the impact of financial innovation. They estimate money demand for ten developing countries, using various proxies for financial innovations. They also assess the relative importance of this variable, finding financial innovation can be better modeled as a stochastic (random-walk) trend rather than a deterministic (time) trend. Financial innovation plays an important role in determining fluctuations of the demand for money. The importance of this role increases with the rate of inflation.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 721.

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Date of creation: 31 Jul 1991
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:721

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Inequality; Energy and Environment;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lieberman, Charles, 1977. "The Transactions Demand for Money and Technological Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(3), pages 307-17, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ochs, Jack & Rush, Mark, 1983. "The Persistence of Interest-Rate Effects on the Demand for Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(4), pages 499-505, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1976-3), pages 683-740. [Downloadable!]
  9. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "An Adaptive Regression Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 364-71, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Arrau, Patricio & de Gregorio, Jose, 1991. "Financial innovation and money demand : theory and empirical implementation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 585, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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