Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States

Contents:

Author Info

  • David F. Hendry
  • Neil R. Ericsson

Abstract

Despite the importance of well-specified empirical money-demand functions for inference, forecasting, and policy, problems in modeling have arisen concerning the economic theories of money demand, the data, institutional frameworks, financial innovation, and econometric implementation. By developing constant, data-coherent M1 demand equations for the UK and the US, we investigate these issues and explain such puzzles as "missing money", the great velocity decline, and the recent explosion in M1. The endogeneity of money, the Lucas critique, and the non-invertibility of our M1 models are also discussed.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1990/383/default.htm
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1990/383/ifdp383.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 383.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 1990
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:383

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm

Related research

Keywords: Money supply ; Great Britain;

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Rose, Andrew K, 1985. "An Alternative Approach to the American Demand for Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 439-55, November.
  2. Hoover, Kevin D., 1990. "The Logic of Causal Inference: Econometrics and the Conditional Analysis of Causation," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 207-234, October.
  3. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
  4. James G. MacKinnon & Halbert White, 1983. "Some Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators with Improved Finite Sample Properties," Working Papers 537, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  5. Sargan, J D, 1980. "Some Approximations to the Distribution of Econometric Criteria Which are Asymptotically Distributed as Chi-Squared," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1107-38, July.
  6. Goodhart, Charles, 1986. "Financial Innovation and Monetary Control," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 79-102, Winter.
  7. Laidler, David, 1984. "The 'Buffer Stock' Notion in Monetary Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(376a), pages 17-34, Supplemen.
  8. Milbourne, Ross, 1983. "Optimal Money Holding under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(3), pages 685-98, October.
  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  10. Mizon, Grayham E & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1986. "The Encompassing Principle and Its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 657-78, May.
  11. Garcia, Gillian & Pak, Simon, 1979. "Some Clues in the Case of the Missing Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 330-34, May.
  12. Walsh, Carl E, 1984. "Interest Rate Volatility and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 133-50, May.
  13. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 928, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 813, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
  16. Gordon, Robert J, 1984. "The Short-Run Demand for Money: A Reconsideration," CEPR Discussion Papers 24, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Lubrano, M & Pierse, R G & Richard, J-F, 1986. "Stability of a U.K. Money Demand Equation: A Bayesian Approach to Testing Exogeneity," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 603-24, August.
  18. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  19. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
  20. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
  21. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  22. Nicholls, D F & Pagan, A R, 1983. "Heteroscedasticity in Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1233-42, July.
  23. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.
  24. Salmon, Mark, 1982. "Error Correction Mechanisms," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 199, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  25. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  26. Hendry, David F, 1985. "Monetary Economic Myth and Econometric Reality," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 72-84, Spring.
  27. Hendry, David F, 1988. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedback versus Feedforward Mechanisms in Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 132-49, March.
  28. Edison, Hali J. & Marquez, Jaime R. & Tryon, Ralph W., 1987. "The structure and properties of the Federal Reserve Board Multicountry Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-315, April.
  29. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September.
  30. Smith, Gregor W, 1986. "A Dynamic Baumol-Tobin Model of Money Demand," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 465-69, July.
  31. Fischer, Andreas M., 1989. "Policy regime changes and monetary expectations : Testing for super exogeneity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 423-436, November.
  32. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
  33. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
  34. Courakis, A S, 1978. "Serial Correlation and a Bank of England Study of the Demand for Money: An Exercise in Measurement without Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 537-48, September.
  35. Hylleberg, Svend & Mizon, Grayham E, 1989. "Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 113-25, Supplemen.
  36. Desai, Meghnad, 1981. "Testing monetarism An econometric analysis of professor Stein's model of monetarism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 141-156, November.
  37. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  38. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1982. "Recursive stability analysis of linear regression relationships: An exploratory methodology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 31-76, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:383. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.