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Money Demand Predictability

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  • V. Vance Roley

Abstract

The performance of empirical money demand equations over the past decade raises serious questions about money demand predictability. A variety of specifications were presented to explain past episodes of apparent money demand instability, but their success in predicting future money demand is limited in most instances. In particular, the unprecedented decline in the velocity of Ml during 1982 and 1983 was not captured fullyby any of the previously-modified conventional specifications. This paper evaluates a variety of the approaches and specifications proposed inprevious money demand studies to explain the behavior of the narrowly defined money stock from the mid 1970's through 1983. The empirical results cast doubt on the appropriateness of the conventional money demand specification in both the pre- and post- 1974 periods.

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  • V. Vance Roley, 1985. "Money Demand Predictability," NBER Working Papers 1580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1580
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1988. "Lessons On Monetary Policy From The 1980's," NBER Working Papers 2551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Robert H. Rasche, 1985. "Interest rate volatility and alternative monetary control procedure," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 46-63.
    3. Michael J. Hamburger, 1987. "A Stable Money Demand Function," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 5(1), pages 34-40, January.
    4. Ahmet Baytas & Alvin L. Marty, 1989. "The Interest Elasticity of Money Demand: Further Evidence," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 107-111, Apr-Jun.
    5. Rik Hafer, 1985. "Monetary stabilization policy: evidence from money demand forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 67(May), pages 21-26.
    6. Arrau, Patricio & De Gregorio, Jose & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Wickham, Peter, 1995. "The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 317-340, April.
    7. Patricio Rojas, 1993. "El Dinero como un Objetivo Intermedio de Política Monetaria en Chile: Un Análisis Empírico," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 30(90), pages 139-178.
    8. Sergey Drobyshevsky & G.Kuzmicheva & Elena Sinelnikova & Pavel Trunin, 2010. "Modeling monetary demand in the Russian economy over 1999–2008," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 136P.
    9. Erwin W. Heri, 1988. "Money Demand Regressions and Monetary Targeting Theory and Stylized Evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 124(II), pages 123-149, June.
    10. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.
    11. Werner, Richard A., 2012. "Towards a new research programme on ‘banking and the economy’ — Implications of the Quantity Theory of Credit for the prevention and resolution of banking and debt crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-17.
    12. William T. Gavin & William G. Dewald, 1989. "The Effect of Disinflationary Policies on Monetary Velocity," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 149-164, Spring/Su.
    13. V. Vance Roley, 1986. "The Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements under Alternative Operating Prosedures and Reserve Requirement Systems," NBER Working Papers 1812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Felipe Larraín & Aníbal Larraín, 1988. "El Caso del Dinero Desaparecido Chile 1984-1986," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 25(75), pages 247-282.
    15. Chen, Show-Lin & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2005. "Long-run money demand revisited: evidence from a non-linear approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 19-37, February.
    16. Barnett, William A. & Ghosh, Taniya & Adil, Masudul Hasan, 2022. "Is money demand really unstable? Evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 606-622.
    17. Masudul Hasan Adil & Neeraj Hatekar & Pravakar Sahoo, 2020. "The Impact of Financial Innovation on the Money Demand Function: An Empirical Verification in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 28-61, February.
    18. Chen, Yi-Ting, 2006. "Non-nested tests for competing U.S. narrow money demand functions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 339-363, March.

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