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Do Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations Carry the Seeds of Their Own Destruction?

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  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Vegh, Carlos

Abstract

Most of the major exchange rate-based stabilizations (ERRS) in chronic inflation countries in the last 30 years have ended in spectacular financial and balance of payments crises. Moreover, there is a stunning resemblance in the dynamics of the main macroeconomic variables in all these programs. In the first stages, inflation falls, the economy expands, and consumer spending (particularly of durable goods) explodes. In light of this, the figure of the Finance Minister takes God¬like proportions. Shortly thereafter, however, the “dark side” of ERRS emerges. The slow convergence of inflation fuels a large real exchange rate appreciation which, together with the fall in private saving, lead to large current account imbalances and overborrowing. At this stage, the Finance Minister faces an unenviable dilemma: deflation or devaluation. Often forced by a run on the currency, he or she is eventually left with no choice but to devalue and then, having broken the no-devaluation pledge, is forced out of office, vilified, and blamed for most of the economic ills of the country.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8952.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8952

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  1. Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization: The initial real effects of credible plans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 197-221, July.
  2. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  3. Rebelo, S. & Vegh, C.A., 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," RCER Working Papers 405, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  5. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1982. "The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 801-811, September.
  6. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December.
  7. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1994. "Stabilization dynamics and backward-looking contracts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 59-84, February.
  8. Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 835-55, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Sweta C. Saxena, 2004. "The Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18, pages 321-350, 07.
  3. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," NBER Working Papers 8930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
  5. Buffie, Edward F. & Atolia, Manoj, 2012. "Resurrecting the weak credibility hypothesis in models of exchange-rate-based stabilization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 361-372.
  6. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 1998. "Dating the Integration of World Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gonzalo Caprirolo & Vladimir Lavrac, 2003. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Slovenia," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp17g, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 May 2003.
  8. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  9. Gustavo Gonzalez Padilla & Laura Orué & Gastón Repetto, 2006. "Argentina 1999 – 2005: Analyzing the Market of Bank Lending for Companies During Times of Sudden Changes of Economic Regimes," BCRA Working Paper Series 200609, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
    [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]
    ," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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