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Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence

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  • Calvo, Guillermo A.
  • Reinhart, Carmen M.
  • Vegh, Carlos A.

Abstract

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the model's prediction that undervalued real exchange rates are associated with higher inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 47 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 97-133

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:47:y:1995:i:1:p:97-133

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  1. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  2. Peter Montiel & Jonathan David Ostry, 1991. "Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/29, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Guidotti, Pablo E. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1992. "Macroeconomic interdependence under capital controls : A two-country model of dual exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 353-367, May.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
  5. José Saúl Lizondo, 1993. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Imperfect Asset Substitutability," IMF Working Papers 93/38, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
  7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "PPP Exchange-Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 158-65, February.
  8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital controls, the dual exchange rate, and devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, February.
  9. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," NBER Technical Working Papers 0083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks," MPRA Paper 13716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Corbo, Vittorio & Solimano, Andres, 1991. "Chile's experience with stabilization, revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 579, The World Bank.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  14. Peter J. Montiel & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1992. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting under Capital Controls: Can Money Provide a Nominal Anchor?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 58-78, March.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  16. Bacha, Edmar L., 1979. "Notes on the Brazilian experience with minidevaluations, 1968-1976," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 463-481, November.
  17. Guilkey, David K. & Schmidt, Peter, 1989. "Extended tabulations for Dickey-Fuller tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 355-357, December.
  18. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  19. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1992. "Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Intertemporal consumption substitution and inflation stabilization:An empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 13427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. J. Saul Lizondo, 1993. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting under Imperfect Asset Substitutability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(4), pages 829-851, December.
  22. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : Another economical computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 141-142, January.
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