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La tasa de cambio real como meta de política: teoría y evidencia
[Targeting the real exchange rate: Theory and evidence]

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Author Info

  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Calvo, Guillermo
  • Vegh, Carlos

Abstract

Este trabajo presenta un análisis teórico y empirico de las politicas dirigidas a alcanzar un nivel más depreciado de la tasa de carnbio real. Un modelo de optimización intertemporal sugiere que, en ausencia de cambios en la politica fiscal, un nivel más depreciado de la tasa de carnbio real só1o puede mantenerse de manera temporal. Esto puede lograrse a través de un mayor nivel de la inflación y/o tasa real de interks, dependiendo del grado de movilidad del capital. La evidencia de Brasil, Chile y Colombia sustenta la predicción del modelo según la cual tasas de cambio subvaluadas estan asociadas con una mayor inflación.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13468.

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Date of creation: 1994
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13468

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Keywords: tipo de cambio politica monetaria tasas de interes;

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References

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks," MPRA Paper 13716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "PPP Exchange-Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 158-65, February.
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  4. Santiago Herrera Aguilera, 1991. "¿Qué Tan Grande Es El Desequilibrio Cambiario En Colombia?," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," NBER Technical Working Papers 0083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Peter Montiel & Jonathan David Ostry, 1991. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 91/68, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1992. "Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Peter J. Montiel & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1992. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting under Capital Controls: Can Money Provide a Nominal Anchor?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 58-78, March.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
  10. Guidotti, Pablo E. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1992. "Macroeconomic interdependence under capital controls : A two-country model of dual exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 353-367, May.
  11. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Intertemporal consumption substitution and inflation stabilization:An empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 13427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : Another economical computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 141-142, January.
  14. Guilkey, David K. & Schmidt, Peter, 1989. "Extended tabulations for Dickey-Fuller tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 355-357, December.
  15. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  16. Peter Montiel & Jonathan David Ostry, 1991. "Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/29, International Monetary Fund.
  17. José Saúl Lizondo, 1993. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Imperfect Asset Substitutability," IMF Working Papers 93/38, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
  19. J. Saul Lizondo, 1993. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting under Imperfect Asset Substitutability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(4), pages 829-851, December.
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  21. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Juan Carlos Echeverry G., 1996. "Short Run Savings Fluctuations And Export Shocks.Theory And Evidence For Latin-America," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003498, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Carlos Esteban Posada, 1995. "EL COSTO DE INFLACIÓN (Con Racionalidad y Previsión Perfectas)," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002477, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Juan Carlos Echeverry, . "The Fall in Colombian Savings During the 1990s. Theory and Evidence," Borradores de Economia 061, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Carlos Esteban Posada P., 2004. "El costo de la inflación (con racionalidad y previsión perfectas)," Macroeconomics 0411013, EconWPA.
  5. Álvaro Moreno, 2002. "Determinantes del tipo de cambio real en Colombia. Un modelo neokeynesiano," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 4(7), pages 40-61, July-Dece.

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