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Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?

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  • Carmen M. Reinhart

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Peter Wickham

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Primary commodities still account for the bulk of exports in many developing countries. However, real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s. The appropriate policy response to a terms of trade shock depends importantly on whether the shock is perceived to be temporary or permanent. Our results indicate that the recent weakness in commodity prices is mostly secular, stressing the need for commodity exporting countries to concentrate on export diversification and other structural policies. There is, however, scope for stabilization funds and the use of hedging strategies, since the evidence also suggests commodity prices have become more volatile.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund.

Volume (Year): 41 (1994)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 175-213

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:41:y:1994:i:2:p:175-213

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  1. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
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