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The Tequila effect: theory and evidence from Argentina

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Martin Uribe

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Abstract

The Tequila Effect hypothesis states that the economic crisis that affected several South American countries in 1995 was caused by an exogenous capital flight triggered by the loss of confidence of foreign investors after the collapse of the Mexican peso in December 1994. I analyze the recent Argentine experience before and after the Mexican crisis and argue that the Tequila Effect played an important role in the 1995 crisis. I model the Tequila Effect in an optimizing, small, open economy, as a situation in which agents at time 0 learn that at some random future date foreign investors will pull their assets out of the country. The model captures key features of the Argentine crisis of 1995: the decline in aggregate domestic spending and the outflow of capital that began in December 1994; the credit crunch and interest rate hike of March 1995; the slow return of the real interest rate to its pre-crisis level, and the protracted decline in output and investment that began in March 1995.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 552.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:552

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Keywords: Argentina ; Bank loans ; Mexico;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lahiri, Amartya, 2001. "Exchange rate based stabilizations under real frictions: The role of endogenous labor supply," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1157-1177, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Working Papers 91/107, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Martin Uribe, 1995. "Exchange-rate based inflation stabilization: the initial real effects of credible plans," International Finance Discussion Papers 503, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "Stabilization policies in developing countries: What have we learned?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 701-708, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Allan Drazen, 1997. "Uncertain Duration of Reform: Dynamic Implications," NBER Working Papers 5925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1987. "Balance of Payments Crises in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 19-32, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1996. "Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 27-50, January.
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  8. Rebelo, Sérgio, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," CEPR Discussion Papers 1220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1982. "The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 801-811, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart & Leonardo Leiderman, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
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  13. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Mendoza, Enrique & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "The Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations and the Uncertain Duration of Currency Pegs," Working Papers 97-30, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 835-55, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ana Corbacho & Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Gabriela Inchauste, 2003. "Argentina: Macroeconomic Crisis and Household Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 03/89, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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