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The Tequila effect: theory and evidence from Argentina

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  • Martin Uribe

Abstract

The Tequila Effect hypothesis states that the economic crisis that affected several South American countries in 1995 was caused by an exogenous capital flight triggered by the loss of confidence of foreign investors after the collapse of the Mexican peso in December 1994. I analyze the recent Argentine experience before and after the Mexican crisis and argue that the Tequila Effect played an important role in the 1995 crisis. I model the Tequila Effect in an optimizing, small, open economy, as a situation in which agents at time 0 learn that at some random future date foreign investors will pull their assets out of the country. The model captures key features of the Argentine crisis of 1995: the decline in aggregate domestic spending and the outflow of capital that began in December 1994; the credit crunch and interest rate hike of March 1995; the slow return of the real interest rate to its pre-crisis level, and the protracted decline in output and investment that began in March 1995.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 552.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:552

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Keywords: Argentina ; Bank loans ; Mexico;

References

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  1. Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization: The initial real effects of credible plans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 197-221, July.
  2. Rebelo, Sérgio, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," CEPR Discussion Papers 1220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  4. Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1996. "The syndrome of exchange-rate-based stabilizations and the uncertain duration of currency pegs," International Finance Discussion Papers 548, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," MPRA Paper 13898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Allan Drazen, 1997. "Uncertain Duration of Reform: Dynamic Implications," NBER Working Papers 5925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "Stabilization policies in developing countries: What have we learned?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 701-708, September.
  10. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1995. "Varieties of Capital-Market Crises," IDB Publications 5721, Inter-American Development Bank.
  12. Amartya Lahiri, 1996. "Exchange Rate Based Stabilizations Under Real Frictions: The role of endagenous labor supply," UCLA Economics Working Papers 759, UCLA Department of Economics.
  13. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  14. Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1996. "Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(1), pages 27-50, January.
  15. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "Public Sector Deficits and Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 5407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1987. "Balance of Payments Crises in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 19-32, February.
  17. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Stopping High Inflation," IMF Working Papers 91/107, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Jorge E. Roldós, 1995. "Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 158-183, March.
  19. Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 835-55, November.
  20. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  21. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1982. "The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 801-811, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Joshua Aizenman & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," IMF Working Papers 97/127, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Choueiri, Nada, 2002. "A model of contagious currency crises with application to Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 435-457, June.
  3. Jovis Wolfe Bellot, . "The Stability of the Demand for Broad Money in Argentina in the Post-Financial Liberalization Period," Fordham Economics Dissertations, Fordham University, Department of Economics, number 2002.2, August.
  4. Gabriela Inchauste & Ana Corbacho & Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, 2003. "Argentina," IMF Working Papers 03/89, International Monetary Fund.

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