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The Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations and the Uncertain Duration of Currency Pegs

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  • Mendoza, Enrique
  • Uribe, Martin

Abstract

This paper shows that some key stylized facts of exchange-rate-based stabilization plans can be explained by the uncertain duration of the plans themselves. Uncertain duration is modeled to reflect evidence showing that devaluation probabilities are higher when the plans are introduced and abandoned than in the period in between. If contingent-claims markets are incomplete, this uncertain duration distortion introduces temporary fiscal cuts with large wealth effects. Investment and employment are also distorted, and the resulting supply- side effects play a critical role. Stabilizations of uncertain duration entail large welfare costs, but they are preferred to persistent high inflation. Mexico's experience is examined in the light of these predictions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 97-30.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:97-30

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Cited by:
  1. Cunha, Alexandre B., 2002. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy, Optimal Incomplete Taxation and Business Cycles," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_16, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  2. Marla Ripoll, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting, Macroeconomic Performance and Sectoral Income Distribution in Developing Countries," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 167-196.
  3. Norbert Fiess & Marco fugazza & William Maloney, 2002. "Exchange Rate Appreciations, Labor Market Rigidities, and Informality," Working Papers 2005_15, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  4. repec:qua:journl:v:9:y:2012:i:1:p:35-55 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Edward F. Buffie & Manoj Atolia, 2006. "Resurrecting the Weak Credibility Hypothesis in Models of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization," Working Papers wp2009_01_03, Department of Economics, Florida State University, revised Aug 2007.
  6. Kolver Hernandez, 2006. "State-Dependent Nominal Rigidities & Disinflation Programs in Small Open Economies," Working Papers 06-13, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  7. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 239-296, December.
  8. Buffie, Edward F., 1999. "Optimal trade liberalization and the welfare costs of imperfect credibility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 371-398, April.
  9. Uribe, Martin, 1999. "Comparing the welfare costs and initial dynamics of alternative inflation stabilization policies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 295-318, August.
  10. Kamin, Steven B., 2001. "Real exchange rates and inflation in exchange-rate-based stabilizations: an empirical examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 237-253, February.
  11. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1998. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," International Finance Discussion Papers 611, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Kolver Hernandez, 2004. "State-Dependent Nominal Rigidities & Disinflation Programs in Small Open Economies," Macroeconomics 0411021, EconWPA.
  13. Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2005. "Temporary Stabilization and the Real Option of Waiting when Consumption can be Delayed: an Extreme Value Approach," DEGIT Conference Papers c010_043, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  14. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2006. "Stochastic temporary stabilization: Undiversifiable devaluation and income risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 157-173, January.
  15. Lahiri, Amartya, 2001. "Exchange rate based stabilizations under real frictions: The role of endogenous labor supply," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1157-1177, August.
  16. Martin Uribe, 1996. "The Tequila effect: theory and evidence from Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 552, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2001. "Temporary stabilization: A stochastic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1429-1449, September.
  18. Lahiri, Amartya, 2000. "Disinflation programs under policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 351-373, April.
  19. Steven B. Kamin & John H. Rogers, 1997. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," International Finance Discussion Papers 580, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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