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The Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations and the Uncertain Duration of Currency Pegs

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Author Info
Mendoza, Enrique
Uribe, Martin

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Abstract

This paper shows that some key stylized facts of exchange-rate-based stabilization plans can be explained by the uncertain duration of the plans themselves. Uncertain duration is modeled to reflect evidence showing that devaluation probabilities are higher when the plans are introduced and abandoned than in the period in between. If contingent-claims markets are incomplete, this uncertain duration distortion introduces temporary fiscal cuts with large wealth effects. Investment and employment are also distorted, and the resulting supply- side effects play a critical role. Stabilizations of uncertain duration entail large welfare costs, but they are preferred to persistent high inflation. Mexico's experience is examined in the light of these predictions.

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Paper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 97-30.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:97-30

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Cunha, Alexandre B., 2002. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy, Optimal Incomplete Taxation and Business Cycles," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_16, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Marla Ripoll, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting, Macroeconomic Performance and Sectoral Income Distribution in Developing Countries," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 167-196, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Manoj Atolia & Edward F. Buffie, 2006. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization, Durables Consumption, and Stylized Facts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 416, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin Uribe, 1996. "The Tequila effect: theory and evidence from Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 552, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Norbert Fiess & Marco fugazza & William Maloney, 2002. "Exchange Rate Appreciations, Labor Market Rigidities, and Informality," Working Papers 2005_15, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Cunha, Alexandre B., 2002. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy and Business Cycles," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_19, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kolver Hernandez, 2006. "State-Dependent Nominal Rigidities & Disinflation Programs in Small Open Economies," Working Papers 06-13, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Edward F. Buffie & Manoj Atolia, 2005. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization, Durables Consumption, and the Stylized Facts," Working Papers wp2005_12_01, Department of Economics, Florida State University, revised Jan 2009. [Downloadable!]
  9. Steven B. Kamin, 1996. "Real exchange rates and inflation in exchange-rate based stabilizations: an empirical examination," International Finance Discussion Papers 554, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1998. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," International Finance Discussion Papers 611, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Steven B. Kamin & John H. Rogers, 1997. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," International Finance Discussion Papers 580, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Kolver Hernandez, 2004. "State-Dependent Nominal Rigidities & Disinflation Programs in Small Open Economies," Macroeconomics 0411021, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2005. "Temporary Stabilization and the Real Option of Waiting when Consumption can be Delayed: an Extreme Value Approach," DEGIT Conference Papers c010_043, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
  14. Martin Uribe, 1997. "Habit formation and the comovement of prices and consumption during exchange-rate based stabilization programs," International Finance Discussion Papers 598, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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