Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output

Contents:

Author Info

  • Steven B. Kamin
  • Marc Klau
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The simultaneous occurrence of devaluation and recession in Mexico in 1995, as well as in the East Asian economies more recently, appears to contradict the conventional view that devaluations are expansionary. Moreover, a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature also argues that, contrary to the predictions of textbook analysis, exchange rate devaluations may be contractionary rather than expansionary. However, prior statistical analyses of the effects of exchange rate devaluation on output have been subject to several limitations: (i) they have failed to distinguish adequately between short and long-run effects; (ii) they have not controlled for the full range of external shocks; and (iii) they have not considered whether the effects of devaluation might differ between different regions of the world. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of devaluation on output for 27 countries while attempting to address these limitations in previous empirical analyses. We find no evidence that devaluations are contractionary in the long run. Additionally, controlling for sources of spurious correlation and reverse causality appears to mute the measured contractionary effect of devaluation in the short run, although this effect remains even after these controls are introduced. Finally, while the literature on contractionary devaluation has focused primarily on developing countries, we found no evidence that this effect is stronger in developing countries than in industrialised countries.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1998/611/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1998/611/ifdp611.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 611.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 1998
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:611

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
    Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Gross domestic product;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    2. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
    3. Martin Uribe, 1995. "Exchange-rate based inflation stabilization: the initial real effects of credible plans," International Finance Discussion Papers 503, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Output, devaluation and the real exchange rate in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 18-41, March.
    5. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1997. "The syndrome of exchange-rate-based stabilizations and the uncertain duration of currency pegs," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 121, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    7. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
    8. Steven B. Kamin, 1996. "Real exchange rates and inflation in exchange-rate based stabilizations: an empirical examination," International Finance Discussion Papers 554, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Guillermo Calvo & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Under Imperfect Credibility - G. A. Calvo and C. A. Vegh," IMF Working Papers 91/77, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1995. "Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Working Papers 95/99, International Monetary Fund.
    11. John H. Rogers & Ping Wang, 1993. "Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: evidence from Mexico," Research Paper 9315, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
    13. Jorge E. Roldós, 1995. "Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 158-183, March.
    14. Morley, Samuel A, 1992. "On the Effect of Devaluation during Stabilization Programs in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 21-27, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Ahmed, Shaghil & Ara, Iffat & Hyder, Kalim, 2005. "How External Shocks and Exchange Rate Depreciations Affect Pakistan? Implications for Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 16247, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2006.
    2. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
    3. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2007. "Managing new-style currency crises: the swan diagram approach revisited," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 583-606.
    4. M Bahmani-Oskooee & I Miteza, 2006. "Stock Market Growth: An analysis of cointegration and causality," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(1), pages 37-64, March.
    5. Shaghil Ahmed & Christopher J. Gust & Steven B. Kamin & Jonathan Huntley, 2002. "Are depreciations as contractionary as devaluations? A comparison of selected emerging and industrial economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 737, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Forbes, Kristin, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," Working papers 4379-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    7. MITEZA, Ilir, 2006. "Devaluation And Output In Five Transition Economies: A Panel Cointegration Approach Of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia And Romania, 1993-2000," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).
    8. A. E. Akinlo & A. F. Odusola, 2003. "Assessing the impact of Nigeria's naira depreciation on output and inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 691-703.
    9. Kim, Yoonbai & Ying, Yung-Hsiang, 2007. "An empirical assessment of currency devaluation in East Asian countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-283, March.
    10. Herrera, Santiago & Perry, Guillermo & Quintero, Neile, 2000. "Output fluctuations in Latin America - what explains the recent slowdown?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2333, The World Bank.
    11. Carlos O. Arteta, 2003. "Are financially dollarized countries more prone to costly crises?," International Finance Discussion Papers 763, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Santiago Herrera & Guillermo Perry & Neile Quintero, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in Latin America: What Explains the Recent Slowdown?," Macroeconomics 0004012, EconWPA.
    13. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
    14. Rolf Maier, 2005. "External Debt and Pro-Poor Growth," Macroeconomics 0504031, EconWPA.
    15. Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak & Muhammad Tariq, 2012. "Are Real Devaluations Contractionary? an Empirical Analysis for Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(1), pages 119-134, March.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.