IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jitecd/v15y2006i1p101-127.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to the macroeconomy: Contrasting evidence for developing and developed countries

Author

Listed:
  • Magda Kandil

Abstract

The paper examines channels of interaction between exchange rate shifts and the macroeconomy. Exchange rate shifts are differentiated into anticipated and unanticipated components. Each component affects the demand and supply sides of the economy. Primarily, exchange rate shifts determine export competitiveness and the cost of imported inputs. The evidence reveals a relatively more important role for the cost channel in determining the real and inflationary effects in developing countries, compared with developed countries. Currency appreciation (depreciation), both anticipated and unanticipated, results in an increase (decrease) in output growth and a reduction (an increase) in price inflation in many developing countries. This evidence indicates the adverse effects of currency depreciation on macroeconomic performance in developing countries. Exchange rate policy should not be used to raise export competitiveness without considering the need for structural reforms in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Magda Kandil, 2006. "On the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to the macroeconomy: Contrasting evidence for developing and developed countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 101-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:15:y:2006:i:1:p:101-127
    DOI: 10.1080/09638190500525795
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09638190500525795
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09638190500525795?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F., 1982. "A general approach to lagrange multiplier model diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 83-104, October.
    2. Solimano, Andres, 1986. "Contractionary devaluation in the southern cone : The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 135-151, September.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Guitian, Manuel, 1976. "The effects of changes in the exchange rate on output, prices and the balance of payments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 65-74, February.
    5. Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
    6. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    7. Mr. Joshua E. Greene & Ms. Magda E. Kandil, 2002. "The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U. S. Balance of Payments," IMF Working Papers 2002/045, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Radetzki, Marian, 1991. "Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Developed Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-25, October.
    9. Hanson, James A., 1983. "Contractionary devaluation, substitution in production and consumption, and the role of the labor market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 179-189, February.
    10. Adrian Pagan, 1986. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 517-538.
    11. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh, 1996. "Disinflation and The Recession-Now-versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(2), pages 355-394, June.
    12. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    13. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Ida Aghdas, 2003. "The effects of dollar appreciation on sectoral labor market adjustments: Theory and evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 89-117.
    14. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1992. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in a Basic Equilibrium Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 855-889, December.
    15. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February.
    16. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "Foreign Capital and the Contractionary Impact of Currency Devaluation, with an Application to Jamaica," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 13, pages 353-370, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
    18. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    19. Kandil, Magda & Woods, Jeffrey G, 1997. "Cyclical Comovements in Industrial Labor and Product Markets: Theory and Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 725-744, October.
    20. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-654, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hakeem Eltalla, 2013. "Devaluation and Output Growth in Palestine: Evidence from a CGE model," European Journal of Business and Economics, Central Bohemia University, vol. 8(4), pages 4221:8-4221, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magda Kandil & Ida Aghdas Mirzaie, 2008. "Comparative Analysis Of Exchange Rate Appreciation And Aggregate Economic Activity: Theory And Evidence From Middle Eastern Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 45-96, January.
    2. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Ida Aghdas, 2003. "The effects of dollar appreciation on sectoral labor market adjustments: Theory and evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 89-117.
    3. Magda Kandil, 2004. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations And Economic Activity In Developing Countries: Theory And Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 85-108, June.
    4. Kandil, Magda & Berument, Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz, 2007. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on economic activity in Turkey," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 466-489, June.
    5. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February.
    6. Kandil, Magda & Mirazaie, Ida, 2004. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Output and Prices: Evidence from Developing Countries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 38(2), pages 189-219, January-M.
    7. Nergiz Dincer & Magda Kandil, 2011. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 809-837, June.
    8. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Mirzaie Aghdas, 2000. "The Long-Run Effects of Depreciation of The Dollar on Sectoral Output," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 51-61.
    9. Taye, Haile Kebret, 1999. "The Impact of Devaluation on Macroeconomic Performance: The Case of Ethiopia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, July.
    10. Linda Kamas, 1992. "Devaluation, national output and the trade balance: Some evidence from Colombia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(3), pages 425-445, September.
    11. Magda Kandil, 2019. "Variation in nominal and real effective exchange rates: evidence across developed and developing countries," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 181-219, June.
    12. Magda Kandil & Ida Mirzaie, 2006. "Consumption and macroeconomic policies: Theory and evidence from developing countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 469-491.
    13. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Output, devaluation and the real exchange rate in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(1), pages 18-41, March.
    14. M Bahmani-Oskooee & I Miteza, 2006. "Stock Market Growth: An analysis of cointegration and causality," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(1), pages 37-64, March.
    15. Magda Kandil, 2020. "Determinants of policy variations and macroeconomic implications," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 199-238, February.
    16. Shi, Jianhuai, 2007. "Are Currency Appreciations Contractionary in China?," 2007: China's Agricultural Trade: Issues and Prospects Symposium, July 2007, Beijing, China 55020, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Magda Kandil, 2010. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Output in Oil-Producing Countries: The Case of Iran," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 23-45, May.
    18. Anubha Dhasmana, 2015. "Transmission of real exchange rate changes to the manufacturing sector: The role of financial access," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 48-69.
    19. Hossain, A., 2006. "Sources of Economic Growth in Indonesia, 1966-2003," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    20. Toseef Azid & Muhammad Jamil & Aneela Kousar, 2005. "Impact of Exchange rate Volatility on Growth and Economic Performance: A Case Study of Pakistan, 1973-2003," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 749-775.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:15:y:2006:i:1:p:101-127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJTE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.