IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jed/journl/v29y2004i1p85-108.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Fluctuations And Economic Activity In Developing Countries: Theory And Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Magda Kandil

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output growth and price inflation in a sample of twenty-two developing countries. The analysis introduces a theoretical rational expectation model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. The model demonstrates the effects of demand and supply channels on the output and price responses to changes in the exchange rate. In general, exchange rate depreciation, both anticipated and unanticipated, decreases real output growth and increases price inflation. The evidence confirms concerns about the negative effects of currency depreciation on economic performance in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Magda Kandil, 2004. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations And Economic Activity In Developing Countries: Theory And Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 85-108, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:29:y:2004:i:1:p:85-108
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.jed.or.kr/full-text/29-1/04_J626_.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F., 1982. "A general approach to lagrange multiplier model diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 83-104, October.
    2. Solimano, Andres, 1986. "Contractionary devaluation in the southern cone : The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 135-151, September.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro, 1963. "A Note on the Impact of Devaluation and the Redistributive Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 577-577.
    5. Guitian, Manuel, 1976. "The effects of changes in the exchange rate on output, prices and the balance of payments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 65-74, February.
    6. Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
    7. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February.
    8. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "Foreign Capital and the Contractionary Impact of Currency Devaluation, with an Application to Jamaica," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 13, pages 353-370, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Radetzki, Marian, 1991. "Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Developed Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-25, October.
    10. J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
    11. Hanson, James A., 1983. "Contractionary devaluation, substitution in production and consumption, and the role of the labor market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 179-189, February.
    12. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1982. "Generalized Chow Tests for Structural Change: A Coordinate-Free Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(3), pages 565-575, October.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Aghdas Mirzai, 2000. "Real and nominal effective exchange rates for developing countries: 1973:1-1997:3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 411-428.
    14. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    15. Kandil, Magda & Woods, Jeffrey G, 1997. "Cyclical Comovements in Industrial Labor and Product Markets: Theory and Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 725-744, October.
    16. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-654, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ezeanyeji Clement I. & Onwuteaka Ifeoma. C., 2016. "Determinants of Exchange Rate Sensitivity on the Nigerian Manufacturing Sector," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(1), pages 40-50.
    2. Zain Ahmed, 2014. "Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Fluctuation in Pakistan," International Journal of Social Sciences and Management Studies (IJSSMS), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(2), pages 80-88, June.
    3. Durdana Qaiser Gillani & An ul Abdin, 2021. "Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Pakistan Economy," Journal of Education and Social Studies, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 95-101.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ramzi Benkraiem & Anthony Miloudi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2019. "Tourism-induced financial development in Malaysia: New evidence from the tourism development index," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(5), pages 757-778, August.
    5. Peter Nuhu & Dramani Bukari, 2021. "An analysis of export, import and exchange rate oscillation in Ghana," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 301-327, September.
    6. Roldan Alba, 2022. "The Golden Fetters in the Mediterranean Periphery. How Spain and Italy Overcame Business Cycles Between 1870 and 1913?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 170-193, January.
    7. Deeviya Patel & Gisele Mah, 2018. "Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: the case of South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(1), pages 146-158.
    8. UFOEZE, Lawrence Olisaemeka, 2018. "Effect Of Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuations On Nigerian Economy," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 9(1), pages 105-122.
    9. Sanginabadi, Bahram & Heidari, Hassan, 2012. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Iran," MPRA Paper 52406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Le Viet Trung & Nguyen Thi Thuy Vinh, 2011. "The impact of oil prices, real effective exchange rate and inflation on economic activity: Novel evidence for Vietnam," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-09, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    11. Asset Izatov, 2015. "The Role of Oil Prices, the Real Effective Exchange Rate, and Inflation in Economic Activity of Russia: An Empirical Investigation," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 1(3), pages 48-70.
    12. Umar Aliyu Shuabiu & Mohammed A. M. Usman & Behiye Çavuşoğlu, 2021. "The Nexus among Competitively Valued Exchange Rates, Price Level, and Growth Performance in the Turkish Economy; New Insight from the Global Value Chains," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-19, November.
    13. Joseph Olufemi OGUNJOBI & Olufemi Adebayo OLADIPO (PhD) & Oluwasegun ESEYIN & Olaoluwa OPAOLA & Ishola James ARANSIOLA (PhD), 2022. "Exchange Rate and Agricultural Exports: Evidence From Nigeria (1981-2019)," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 9(4), pages 89-101, April.
    14. Ekundayo P. Mesagan & Olorunfemi Y. Alimi & Ismaila A. Yusuf, 2018. "Macroeconomic Implications of Exchange Rate Depreciation: The Nigerian Experience," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 16(3 (Fall)), pages 235-258.
    15. Martins Iyoboyi & Olarinde Muftau, 2014. "Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, December.
    16. Dr. Akinmulegun Sunday O. & Falana Olajide E., 2018. "Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Industrial Output Growth in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 4(5), pages 145-158, 05-2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magda Kandil, 2006. "On the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to the macroeconomy: Contrasting evidence for developing and developed countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 101-127.
    2. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Ida Aghdas, 2003. "The effects of dollar appreciation on sectoral labor market adjustments: Theory and evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 89-117.
    3. Magda Kandil & Ida Aghdas Mirzaie, 2008. "Comparative Analysis Of Exchange Rate Appreciation And Aggregate Economic Activity: Theory And Evidence From Middle Eastern Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 45-96, January.
    4. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February.
    5. Kandil, Magda & Berument, Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz, 2007. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on economic activity in Turkey," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 466-489, June.
    6. Kandil, Magda & Mirazaie, Ida, 2004. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Output and Prices: Evidence from Developing Countries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 38(2), pages 189-219, January-M.
    7. Nergiz Dincer & Magda Kandil, 2011. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 809-837, June.
    8. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Mirzaie Aghdas, 2000. "The Long-Run Effects of Depreciation of The Dollar on Sectoral Output," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 51-61.
    9. Taye, Haile Kebret, 1999. "The Impact of Devaluation on Macroeconomic Performance: The Case of Ethiopia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, July.
    10. Linda Kamas, 1992. "Devaluation, national output and the trade balance: Some evidence from Colombia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(3), pages 425-445, September.
    11. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Output, devaluation and the real exchange rate in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(1), pages 18-41, March.
    12. M Bahmani-Oskooee & I Miteza, 2006. "Stock Market Growth: An analysis of cointegration and causality," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(1), pages 37-64, March.
    13. Magda Kandil, 2009. "Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(1), pages 45-69, January-J.
    14. Ghura, Dhaneshwar, 1995. "Effects of macroeconomic policies on income growth, inflation, and output growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 367-395, August.
    15. Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak & Muhammad Tariq, 2012. "Are Real Devaluations Contractionary? an Empirical Analysis for Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(1), pages 119-134, March.
    16. Kandil, Magda, 2007. "The wage-price spiral: International evidence and implications," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 212-240.
    17. Hossain, A., 2006. "Sources of Economic Growth in Indonesia, 1966-2003," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    18. Toseef Azid & Muhammad Jamil & Aneela Kousar, 2005. "Impact of Exchange rate Volatility on Growth and Economic Performance: A Case Study of Pakistan, 1973-2003," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 749-775.
    19. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    20. Munir A. S. Choudhary & Muhammad Aslam Chaudhry, 2007. "Effects of the Exchange Rate on Output and Price Level: Evidence from the Pakistani Economy," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 49-77, Jan-Jun.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Output Growth; Price Inflation; Supply vs. Demand Shifts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:29:y:2004:i:1:p:85-108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sung Y. Park (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eccaukr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.