Sources of Economic Growth in Indonesia, 1966-2003
AbstractThis paper undertakes an empirical investigation of factors that contributed to economic growth in Indonesia for the period 1966 to 2003. A Cobb-Douglas production function is estimated with a time trend to capture the rate of technological progress within a cointegral and error-correction modeling framework. In the estimated production function, the coefficients on both capital and labor bear a positive sign and are statistically significant. As the sum of these coefficients appears significantly lower that one, by imposing the restriction of constant returns to scale, the production function is re-estimated in per-capita form. The estimated long-term parameter values are then used to compute the contributions of capital, labor and technology to economic growth for the periods 1966 to 2003, 1966 to 1981, 1982 to 1996, and 1982 to 2003. The computed sources of growth indicate that for the last 40 years the most important source of growth in Indonesia was capital accumulation, about 60 percent. The contribution of labor to economic growth during this period was about 32 percent, while technological progress contributed the remaining 8 percent. The dynamic behavior of output growth is examined by estimating an error-correction model of per-capita real GDP, which explains about 83 percent of the variations of productivity growth over the period 1967 to 2003. Within a Granger-causality framework, the impacts of key indicators of macroeconomic policies and external developments, such as budget deficits, inflation, trade openness, the growth rate of the real exchange rate and the growth rate of the external terms-of-trade, on per-capita output growth are also individually examined for the period 1967 to 2003. The test results suggest that trade openness, the real exchange rate depreciation and changes in the external terms of trade have a feedback causal relationship with per-capita output growth. However, inflation and budget deficits do not have any significant causal effect on productivity growth.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.
Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- De Gregorio, Jose, 1993. "Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 271-298, June.
- P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976.
"Contractionary Effects of Devaluations,"
191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Stanley Fischer, 1993.
"The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James A. Dorn, 2003. "Introduction," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 23(1), pages 1-9, Spring/Su.
- Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1996.
"Stabilization and growth in transition economies: The early experience,"
20631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 45-66, Spring.
- S. Fisher & R. Sahay & C. A. Vegh, 1997. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
- Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992.
"Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
630, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1985.
"Are Devaluations Contractionary?,"
NBER Working Papers
1676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball, 1990.
"Why Does High Inflation Raise Inflation Uncertainty?,"
NBER Working Papers
3224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
- Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990.
"Trade, Innovation, and Growth,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 86-91, May.
- S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
- Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
- Barro, Robert J, 1990.
"Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
- Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, R.J., 1988. "Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth," RCER Working Papers 130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Barro, Robert J., 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth," Scholarly Articles 3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1991.
"Trade Orientation, Distortions and Growth in Developing Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
3716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1992. "Trade orientation, distortions and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 31-57, July.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2232, David K. Levine.
- Gundlach, Erich, 1996.
"Openness and economic growth in developing countries,"
Kiel Working Papers
749, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Erich Gundlach, 1997. "Openness and economic growth in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 479-496, September.
- Gundlach, Erich, 1997. "Openness and economic growth in developing countries," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1723, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Linda Kamas, 1992. "Devaluation, national output and the trade balance: Some evidence from Colombia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 425-445, September.
- Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998.
"Inflation crises and long-run growth,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
- Paul Romer, 1989.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
NBER Working Papers
3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-54, November.
- Stanley Fischer & Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont & Ratna Sahay, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/31, International Monetary Fund.
- Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Radetzki, Marian, 1991. "Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Developed Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-25, October.
- Peter Christoffersen & Peter Doyle, 2000.
"From Inflation to Growth,"
The Economics of Transition,
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 421-451, July.
- Michael Sarel, 1996. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 199-215, March.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Risager, Ole, 1984. "Does devaluation improve the current account?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 37-64, June.
- By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001.
"Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
- A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
- Barbone, Luca & Rivera-Batiz, Francisco, 1987. "Foreign capital and the contractionary impact of currency devaluation, with an application to Jamaica," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-15, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.