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Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Output in Oil-Producing Countries: The Case of Iran

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Author Info

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Magda Kandil

Abstract

Conventional wisdom states that currency depreciation in oil-producing countries is contractionary because demand effects, limited by the prevalence of oil exports priced in dollars, are more than offset by adverse supply effects. Iran, however, has experienced a rapid increase in nonoil exports in the past decade. Against this background, the paper tests whether the conventional wisdom still applies to Iran and concludes that the emergence of the nonoil export sector has made currency depreciation expansionary. The expansionary effect is particularly evident regarding anticipated persistent depreciation in the long run. Notwithstanding the varying effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the demand and supply sides of the economy, managing a flexible exchange rate gradually over time toward achieving stability in the real effective exchange rate may strike the necessary balance.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Volume (Year): 46 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 23-45

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Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:46:y:2010:i:3:p:23-45

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Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

Related research

Keywords: currency depreciation; imported inputs; Iran; nonoil exports;

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References

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  1. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
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  4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
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  13. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Mirzaie Aghdas, 2000. "The Long-Run Effects of Depreciation of The Dollar on Sectoral Output," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 51-61.
  14. Solimano, Andres, 1986. "Contractionary devaluation in the southern cone : The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 135-151, September.
  15. Taye, Haile Kebret, 1999. "The Impact of Devaluation on Macroeconomic Performance: The Case of Ethiopia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, July.
  16. Peter Anker & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2001. "On the relationship between the value of the mark and German production," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1525-1530.
  17. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2008. "Exchange rate sensitivity of US bilateral trade flows," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 129-141, June.
  18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Magda Kandil, 2002. "Are devaluations contractionary in Asia?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 25(1), pages 69-82, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Naveed Aamir, 2012. "Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 299-316, November.
  2. Melhem Sadek & Diallo Abdul Salam & Terraza Michel, 2011. "Hypothesis of Currency Basket Pricing of Crude Oil: An Iranian Perspective," Working Papers 11-13, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Jun 2011.

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