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Consumption and macroeconomic policies: Theory and evidence from developing countries

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Author Info
Magda Kandil
Ida Mirzaie

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Abstract

This paper examines determinants of private consumption in a sample of developing countries. The empirical model includes income, a proxy for the cost of consumption, and the exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these determinants are likely to trigger adjustment in planned consumption, while unanticipated changes determine random transitory adjustment in consumption. Fluctuations in private consumption are mostly random with respect to unanticipated changes in income and, to a lesser extent, the exchange rate. Consumption increases during cyclical expansion of income and decreases in the face of an unanticipated increase in the cost of consumption. Exchange rate fluctuations have mixed results on private consumption. As for the effects of domestic policies, fiscal policy has a limited, and sometimes negative, effect on private consumption. Monetary growth, in contrast, stimulates an increase in private consumption. This evidence supports recent calls to decrease the size of government and enhance the role of monetary policy in stimulating private activity in developing countries.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Journal of International Trade & Economic Development.

Volume (Year): 15 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 469-491
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Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:15:y:2006:i:4:p:469-491

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Keywords: Consumption; macroeconomic policies; developing countries;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. DeJuan, Joseph P. & J. Seater, John, 1999. "The permanent income hypothesis:: Evidence from the consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 351-376, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Park, Sangkyun & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 2000. "Is Aggregate Consumer Borrowing Consistent with the Permanent Income Hypothesis?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(3), pages 301-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ida Aghdas Mirzaie & Magda E. Kandil, 2003. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Output and Prices: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 03/200, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kandil, Magda, 2001. "Asymmetry in the effects of us government spending shocks: evidence and implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 137-165. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cashin, P. & McDermott, C. J., 1997. "Testing the Consumption-Capm in Developing Equity Markets," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 593, The University of Melbourne.
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  6. Eric Girardin & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2000. "Private consumption behaviour, liquidity constraints and financial deregulation in France: a nonlinear analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 351-368. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1998. "Real Interest Rates, Liquidity Constraints and Financial Deregulation: Private Consumption Behavior in the U.K," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 221-242, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1987-1), pages 1-56. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Ida Aghdas, 2003. "The effects of dollar appreciation on sectoral labor market adjustments: Theory and evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 89-117. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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