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The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households

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Robert E. Hall
Frederic S. Mishkin

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Abstract

We investigate the stochastic relation between income and consumption (specifically, consumption of food) within a panel of about 2,000 households. Our major findings are: 1. Consumption responds much more strongly to permanent than to transitory movements of income. 2. The response to transitory income is nonetheless clearly positive. 3. A simple test, independent of our model of consumption, rejects a central implication of the pure life cycle-permanent income hypothesis. The observed covariation of income and consumption is compatible with pure life cycle-permanent income behavior on the part of80 percent of families and simple proportionality of consumption and income among the remaining 20 percent. As a general matter, our findings support the view that families respond differently to different sources of income variations. In particular, temporary income tax policies have smaller effects on consumption than do other, more permanent changes in income of the same magnitude.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0505.

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Date of creation: May 1982
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0505

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Rogalski, Richard J & Vinso, Joseph D, 1977. "Stock Returns, Money Supply and the Direction of Causality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1017-30, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Eisner, Robert, 1969. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Reconsidered," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 897-905, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rozeff, Michael S., 1974. "Money and stock prices : Market efficiency and the lag in effect of monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 245-302, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mayer, Thomas, 1972. "Tests of the Permanent Income Theory with Continuous Budgets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 757-78, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Yaari, Menahem E., 1976. "A law of large numbers in the theory of consumer's choice under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 202-217, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Walter Dolde & James Tobin, 1971. "Wealth, Liquidity, and Consumption," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 311, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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